2021 UK Elections review

We have local elections coming up shortly, so I thought it would be interesting to review the election strategies of the main parties.

At the Crossroads

Firstly, I think we need to group the UK electorate into a number of different groups. There are various other ways of clarifying the different political tribes, but I’m going for my own version, which might be more relevant to the current elections:

We can group UK voters into 4 categories: Firstly we have the COTB’s aka the Cult of the One True Brexit, representing about a third of voters, the floating centre at about another third of voters, the soft left at about 20-25% and the hard left at about 10-15%. Its also worth noting that you don’t need a majority of the votes to win an election. The Tories only got about 44% of the votes to achieve a landslide result in 2019.

There is little to be gained by Starmer trying to appeal to COTB voters. Decades of right wing media brainwashing, means they are completely beyond help. They will find some excuse to vote for the Tories no matter what the Tories do. Johnson could set their balls on fire and they’d still blame it on Starmer/Brussels/migrants and vote Tory. You’d have better luck trying to get pope to convert away from Catholicism. So I’d just ignore them.

In fact we can see a good example of this from the US election. Biden went out of his way to try and convince right wing voters to abandon the Trump/Qanon crazy train. And it was a strategy that completely failed and could have cost him the election. There’s little to be gained by appealing to right wingers better nature, they don’t have such a thing.

So labour are far better off trying to sell their policies to the floating voters in the centre as well as those on the left. And there’s quite a lot of labour policies that would be attractive towards those voters. While for example, proposing another brexit referendum might be a bit unrealistic, highlighting Tory failures and promising to join a customs union with the EU (meaning exporters can export again) would be one idea. Safeguarding the NHS, tackling climate change with a green recovery. Not to mention reigning in Tory sleeze would all be policies you could sell to the electorate. Lowering student fees would be another easy vote winner.

The trouble is, Starmer hasn’t been doing this. He has failed to take advantage of the open goal that is brexit, for fear of offending leave voters. However, this hasn’t done labour any favours. We need to ditch the legend of the working class leave voter. There are some yes, but the vast majority of leave voters are so-called “comfortable leavers”. That being entitled middle class pensioners with a secure pension and no responsibilities who don’t have to worry about the consequences of their vote.

Of course should labour actually make it into power, and they end up short of a few bob, well guess whose pension is getting cut. Similarly, taking issue with the right wing media (e.g. a ban on non-UK taxpayers owning newspapers) as well as going after tax cheats, meaning leavers might not be so comfortable any more. But they’ve only got themselves to blame for that. In fact, Biden is showing signs of adopting this tactic in the US, looking after democratic voters at the expense of republican voting interests.

Speaking of cults…..

Now the mistake of the hard left is to assume that Starmer should lean well to the left and adopt the same hard left policies Corbyn did. I’m assuming they have the memory of a goldfish. That isn’t going to work. Corbyn lost two elections on a hard left manifesto, including the worst defeat in labour history (and the 2nd worst one was by another hard left leader in the 80’s!).

In fact, the 2019 election result only makes sense if a number of centre ground voters (including quite a few remainers) held their noses and voted Tory, because they preferred Johnson and his gallery of ghouls over Corbyn and his Michael Foot tribute act. That is the harsh reality Corbyn supporters need to learn.

Now granted some of this rejection of hard left policies is down to the aforementioned lies of a biased media. For years we were told that re-nationalisation of the railways would unlock the seventh seal and the red hordes would be coming out of the bushes. Yet the Tory government quietly re-nationalised the railways many months ago and I’ve yet to encounter a re-animated Stalin or Lenin stalking the streets.

We were told that a citizens income, nevermind paying welfare at a level someone could live off of, was unaffordable. Yet the government has had many millions of workers furlonged for over a year and yet still seems to be able to afford various money burning parties for their donors and chum’s. So it can’t really be that unaffordable can it?

The hard left seem to think that if they stick to Starmer, that means they can drag labour further to the left. Think again. If Starmer fails to get any traction in this election, then gradually labour will drift further and further towards the right. Which makes sense, as the closer to the centre they get the more of that large pool of wavering voters they can win over. Even if labour were to split, it would still make sense, not least given the extremely short life span of hard left parties in the UK (there’s about 6 on my ballot paper, most of whom spend their time fighting with each other, Judean People’s front style).

But either way, we have to acknowledge that 2019 was as much a rejection of Corbynism as an acceptance of brexit (particularly given Corbyn’s inability to commit to remain). You’ve already lost that argument….twice! Get over it.

Breakaway factions

Meanwhile in Scotland it could be quite an important election. You can gauge how it goes by the line the BBC (The Brexit Bullsh*ting Conservatives) will take afterwards. If the SNP don’t win overwhelmingly, the election was a referendum on independence (which will be spun as a loss…even if the SNP gain seats and end up with a majority). If they do win and win well, well it has nothing to do with independence, but local politics.

Which is partially true. The reason why the Tories have done well in past elections in Scotland is they (and the Greens) understood the implications of devolution in a way that labour and lib dems really haven’t figured out. The Tories allowed the Scottish branch to forge their own path, even if it diverged from Westminster (the Scottish Tories for example campaigned for remain)….well at least they did until Boris became leader and demanded absolutely loyalty, turning them into little more than a branch office that must toe the line, regardless of the absurdities.

So a poor showing by the Tories in Scotland will at least partially be down to these factors. But I will also be a reflection on the desire for a 2nd indyref. And while yes, they need Westminster’s approval for an official 2nd vote, but the problem is for the Tories is that if the SNP can demonstrate a majority, be it in this election or an unofficial poll, that’s kind of that for the union. Opposing independence will only make it more popular.

With a mandate for independence the SNP can just make an arse of themselves, e.g. encourage Scottish citizens to pay their taxes to Holyrood rather than Westminster (or just stop paying taxes altogether, its not like they can lock up several million people, not when the police in Scotland are on the Scottish government’s payroll), run up huge debts on the UK’s credit card, filibuster every single bill that comes before Westminster, organise general strikes to interrupt oil, gas & electricity supplies to England. Eventually, the Tories will have to just accept independence.

And independence for Scotland could have implications elsewhere in the UK. While Welsh independence, or Irish reunification are currently, I’d argue, unlikely. But post Scottish independence that could very quickly change. It has happened before when a nation has broken up.

Panicking about the SNP, the Tory news media have been seeking new lines of attack. And one of those is the possibility of a hard border between Scotland and England. As I’ve discussed before, while theoretically this is possible, in practice it would be impossible (given that England would also be in effect imposing a hard border on NI as well as crippling England’s own trade, notably critical supply lines such as energy, food, medicine…and alcohol!). Given the terms of the EU withdrawal agreement, if Scotland did leave and joined the single market, the rest of the UK would be more or less forced to seek some sort of customs union with both the EU and Scotland.

But facts don’t matter to brexiters or UK journalists, so there is a trick the SNP can use to get around this. Point to the promises the PM made about how he was going to get a frictionless trade agreement and promise they’ll get the same thing with England. Ignore what the EU PM says, that’s just a negotiating position. Anyone being asked to fill in forms at the English border can just put them in the bin. And isn’t the government line that everything is back to normal now? Surely it will be the same with Scotland? Are you saying brexit has turned out to be a bad idea?

This puts the Tories in an awkward position of either admitting to their lies or just changing the subject. Similarly, the media, who swallowed the Tory promises on this without question, will be exposing their pro-government bias by giving the government a free pass, but making it an issue with the SNP.

And there are also factions within the UK that want to break away, such as in Cornwall and Northern England. Again, normally I’d consider this very unlikely, but after Scottish independence that could change very quickly. I’ve talked about the Northern Independence party before and here is an interesting video introducing the topic.

Then again, they might just crash and burn. I’d note that, as the party is only a few months old, it would be foolish to expect much to happen this election. Frankly if they can hold on to their deposits they’d be doing well. But if they make some sort of show of it, e.g. by finishing in the 3rd or 4th position ahead of established parties such as the lib dems or UKIP, then they might be something to take seriously in a future election.

The party of sleeze

The Tory party’s policy would appear to be to stay the course, lie cheat, steal, sell off the NHS, shovel another pleb on the fire, etc. Like I said, you’ve got at least a third of the electorate who will vote for them no matter what they do. So long as the Tories can either prevent the other 2/3’s uniting behind someone else, and/or hoover up enough votes from floating voters in marginal seats. Then, given the unfair nature of the first past the post system, they stay in power.

One quick aside, a question people often ask is, why don’t we call it corruption in the UK when our politicians get caught with their hand in the till? Well that’s the thing, they don’t call it corruption in other countries either. They’ll use other terms, such as “sharing the cake”. The logic is that yes our leader is a thief, but he’s our thief. If a few crumbs fall from the table, so what if he takes the lion’s share for himself and his allies.

However, this Tory strategy was basically the same strategy the Tories used in 1997 and let’s just say it didn’t exactly work for them. The current sleeze allegations are quite damaging (funnily enough, whenever I google “tory sleeze” the first item that comes up is “the history of the conservative party”). While Tory voters won’t care, it could put off floating voters, while increasing the turn out among left wing voters. And knowing the Tories, this is only going to get worse and worse. In fact the latest story is that Johnson privately endorsed the highly unpopular move to form a football super league, that has since been cancelled due to the opposition from fans.

There is a lot of bad economic news related to both brexit and covid coming. The Tories can spin it all they like, but once large numbers of people start losing their jobs, once pensioners realise their pension suddenly ain’t worth as much as they thought, they are going to start blaming the government and looking for alternatives.

Of course if the right wing vote splits that’s not good for them, e.g. towards UKIP or another hard right party, pro-brexit party or populist party (interestingly, while they are left wing, the NIP are also pro-brexit). And as noted, Scottish independence would have disastrous consequences for the Tories, as they’d be going into the 2024 election as “the party that broke the UK” (the last English leader to lose Scotland got rewarded with a red hot poker up his ass).

And remember that rule about being able to gain a majority with less than 50% of the votes. In fact its mathematically possible with as little as 33% of support. Well that applies in reverse. If in 2024 the Tory vote splits (or disgruntled Tory voters just stay at home) and labour does an electoral deal with the other left wing parties (something Corbyn should have done), such that they avoid running against one another in marginal seats, then the Tories could lose. And given its likely labour would then bring in proportional representation, it would be effectively impossible for the Tories to ever form a majority government ever again.

And if the media reckon there is a chance of a labour victory, they may switch sides to avoid the wrath of a vengeful labour party in power (who might otherwise run them out of town). This is exactly what happened in 1997 (in the end, the sith always betray one another).

So while these elections might seem unimportant, this might not be the case. If labour can do well, that suggests they’ve got something to build on towards the next election. If they don’t, my guess is they will start to shift further towards the right. If the SNP do well, it could be another indyref. And if newer upstart parties can show some voter appeal, they could represent an important factor in the 2024 general elections.

Northumbrian independence?

One of the possible outcomes of brexit has always been the risk of the UK breaking up. But there’s also a possibility that England itself could break up. A new political party has recently launched looking to create a new independent state of Northumbria (which was a historical entity and a state in its own right going back many centuries). While it might sound bizarre there is some logic to it. And it also highlights some major issues within the UK which brexit has, if anything, made a lot worse.

Firstly, if you buy into the brexit rhetoric about sovereignty, then I don’t see how you can argue against Scottish independence. Scotland has ceded far more sovereignty to Westminster than it ever ceded to Brussels. And Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain, their economic interests are not the same as those of England (as the brexit trade deal makes clear). And Scotland tends to be more left wing politically. So it stands to reason they should be either allowed greater regional autonomy to pursue these goals. Or, if that’s not possible, then full independence.

Well you could apply the same arguments to Northumbria, or indeed much of Northern England. The economy of England is dominated by the financial markets centred around London. And Westminster under the Tories mostly panders to their needs, as well as those of the wealthy in the home counties in the south. Consider that the average Londoner has an annual salary about double that of the average person living in Northern England (which sort of counters the main argument for staying in the UK, i.e. you’ll be worse off if you leave, well you’re already getting that anyway!).

The north is very much an after thought as far as Westminster is concerned, typically placated with slogans such as “northern powerhouse”…which they’ve been repeating for 10 years while turning the place into a poorhouse. So its not unreasonable for those in the north to want independence.

Some good examples of this attitude can be seen for example with Tories insistence on a new Runway at Heathrow airport, when London already has 5 airports. In fact, Boris Johnson’s would actually prefer to build an entire new airport to the east of the city on a massive artificial Island. Which would be great for Londoners, but not much good for anyone else in the country, who would then have to travel through London to get to these airports. Building a new airport to the north west of the city, or perhaps upgrading another airport (such as Birmingham’s) would be a far better use of public money.

Similarly, while there are arguments for and against HS2, the main argument against it is that there are more pressing transport needs in the UK. Notably, better east to west connections between northern cities. HS2 seems to be more aimed at giving London bankers an easier way to get to their second home in the Cothswolds. And the odds of any connection being built in the north under the Tories is somewhere between slim and nil.

And the aforementioned brexit deal, sold manufacturers, fishing and farming down the river, while ensuring the banks won’t need to worry about new EU anti-tax avoidance rules. Indeed the Tories just introduced new financial services regulations designed to help firms avoid scrutiny of their trading positions. In other worse, its a cheaters charter to the benefit of the banker and at the expense of everyone else.

Brexit is in short, just another in a long list of times the north’s economy has been screwed over to the benefit of the south and the wealthy. Part of the reason why many of the UK’s manufacturing industries collapsed was due to the lack of support they received from the UK government (again while the Tories have to take most of the blame here, labour aren’t entirely free of any).

By contrast other European countries, both before the single market and afterwards, went out of their way to try and protect their industries, making sure they stayed up to date and competitive. In fact one could argue that what saved UK industry from an even larger collapse, and led to something of a revival of some industries (such as car manufacturing), was entry into the single market. Largely because it served to shield manufacturers from the worse excesses of the Tories.

Of course the one thing the Tories have always been good at is deflecting blame. So with no hint of irony, they blamed the EU for many of the problems they had created. And now that they’ve managed to drag the UK out of the EU, they’ve inflicted a massive power grab, centralising yet more power in London. And, as noted, they are prioritising the financial industry in the south ahead of the rest of the economy. And this is an industry which is getting ever more greedy and corrupt (the recent revelations about Greensill for example), whose goals are increasingly at odds with the rest of the country (as the shadow banking industry wants to do deals with repressive regimes, that means jettisoning any principles the UK still has).

Now granted, you could argue many countries have the problem of a capital city creating an imbalance in terms of political and economic power with the rest of the country. But there’s usually some sort of counter balance. So for example in Ireland, Dublin represents about about 40% of the population and about half the economy. However, this is counter balanced by the fact that its Dublin has a much more diverse economy, dominated far more by industries such as manufacturing and tech companies rather than finance.

Then there’s is Ireland’s constitution (something the UK lacks) which puts limits on government power. The independent judiciary, who have launched investigations into political scandals. And Ireland’s voting system using proportional representation basically means it would be impossible to ever win an election in the way the Tories do (i.e. pandering to the rich, upper middle classes and any tabloid reading bigots that can be conned into voting for them). No Irish government could afford to ignore groups such as the farmers or the manufacturing sector. It would be political suicide. And of course the other major balancing factor is the EU and Ireland’s membership of the Euro.

And you see much the same in other EU states. Many also use the PR voting system. This, as I’ve previously noted, is why when the Germans shut down their deep pit coal mines they did so without a single involuntary redundancy. Meanwhile in the UK, coal mining towns were reduced to welfare colonies when the pits closed. As in Ireland, no German government could inflict that on its people and expect to win an election.

And as further check on power, some of the larger EU countries are federated states. So for example Germany breaks down into 16 federal states, each with its own parliament, court system and individual laws. Indeed, the largest and most powerful of these isn’t Berlin, but either Baden-Württemberg or Bavaria (depending on how you count it). And both of their economies are largely dominated by heavy industry, technology and farming. And similarly Spain has its regional governments, as does France.

So really I’d argue the solution is for the UK to copy this model. Firstly introduce PR voting. This would, as noted, make many current Tories policies political suicide, as they’d be setting themselves up to lose election after election. Similarly labour could not afford to neglect older working class voters at the expensive of young middle class voters in the major cities.

Secondly, make the UK a federal state. You’d be devolving more power to Scotland, Wales and NI, but also setting up regional assemblies within England, presumably including the North, Midlands, South and South west. Each region would be able to pass its own laws via its own parliament, including setting local income tax and business rates or sales taxes (which would effectively replace things like VAT, council tax and water rates).

Effectively the only political power held by the capital would be in matters such as foreign policy, defence and deciding how to allocate federal taxes (in the US for example about 50% of all tax is collected by the states and 50% by the federal government). And I use the word capital because I would not leave it in London, but move the capital somewhere else, preferably somewhere north of the Watford gap.

Of course what swings me in favour of Scottish independence (or Northumbrian independence), is the knowledge that you’ve not got a hope in hell of getting any of this passed. Not now, not ever. If all of the above were implemented, the Tories would be screwed. PR would effectively make it impossible for them to ever end up with a majority UK government ever again (recall their “landslide” election in 2019 amounted to just 40% of the vote, well short of a majority under PR).

Worse still, most of these new federal states would end up under the control of left wing parties, who would be now free to pursue whatever left wing policies they wanted. In fact even labour head office wouldn’t be happy, as it would mean more power to rank and file party members (who often complain about being treated as a branch office).

So for example, these UK federal governments could align their standards with those of the EU and enter into some sort of customs union, effectively reversing brexit in all but name. Or they might even have a pop at reversing brexit altogether. They’d be free to put up taxes in their region, increase public spending and close off tax loopholes the wealthy take advantage of. And given they’d effectively have a collective veto on any federal policies it would be impossible for the Tories to pass any of their preferred legislation, indeed much of it would be quickly rolled back.

In fact, even in the south, where the Tories would be in overall control, it wouldn’t work out so well, at least for the Tory party elites (who similarly treat party members like minions). If you are a conservative government in Cornwall for example, you might be tempted to lower your taxes in the hope of persuading some of those financial service companies into moving out of London. This is something that happens all the time in the US, where individual states try to eat each others lunch. And suffice to say, it would be nightmare for the Tories as it would destroy any form of central control (and they need that, cos not everyone in the Tory party knows the secret handshake and might do something silly like arrest a couple of bankers for tax avoidance or embezzlement).

Ultimately this distorted distribution of power in the UK means nothing will change. The problems many in the north voted leave in the hope of solving, won’t be resolved, they will get worse and worse. There’s only so long the Tories can gaslight half the country (not least because most of their supporters are fairly old and will die off eventually). Which makes some sort of breakup of the country inevitable if its not reformed.

Boris burrow part II – the Boris bend, or more than likely the Boris bluff

So you if you thought Boris Johnson’s proposal for a train tunnel between Scotland and NI (aka the Boris Burrow) was crazy, well it would seem they are doubling down. Now they want not one, but 4 tunnels connecting the UK mainland with NI and the Isle of Man.

The longest of these would run from near Liverpool to the northern part of the Isle of Man, a distance of +130 km’s (that’s double the likely distance of a Scotland to NI route and over 2 and a half times longer than the world’s current longest tunnel). Straight away, this tells me that nobody who knows the slightest thing about engineering could be involved in this project.

Generally with tunnels the longer you want to build them, or the deeper under water you want to go, the harder it gets. You have to be able to maintain a water tight seal to resist the hydrostatic pressure of the water above. You need to have the right kind of rock to drill through (the channel tunnel was only able to be built because there was a layer of rock through which a water tight tunnel could be easily drilled through). The tunnel needs to be maintained at a suitable slope such that trains can easily ascend and descend. And you need to be able to circulate air into the tunnel and pump any water out. And the further you are from shore and the deeper you go the harder this pumping process gets.

Quite simply put, even with an unlimited budget and an unlimited amount of time (again it took decades to build much smaller tunnels) it might be impossible to build such a tunnel. Not least because a lot will depend on the geology of the Irish sea. I don’t know, maybe Boris thinks the fictional Island of Sodor from Thomas the Tank engine is real and he can just build the line across it.

As a quick aside, you may ask, why does it have to be a rail tunnel? Well because a road tunnel will need to be much bigger (to accommodate several lanes of traffic), you’ll have to supply air, not just for the people, but also the vehicle engines and pump out exhaust gases (trains can run on electricity). And to be blunt, trains are driven by professional drivers who are less likely to have an accident. As rescuing people from such a deep and remote location under the sea is going to be difficult at the best of times.

Anyway, the fat controller Boris big idea is to have a big roundabout tunnel under the Isle of Man linking everything together. Of course what he’s actually going to need is a series of vast marshalling yards. Go to google earth and look up the town of Ventimiglia in Italy (see below), you’ll notice the entire north end of the town of just 50,000 is dominated by a vast area of railway marshalling yards covering the entire north end of the town, of which only a small fraction is currently in use (with an even larger set of marshalling yards a few km’s to the North west). Why? Well because its on the Italian/French border. And before the EU’s single market came along every train passing between the two countries had to stop. All the passengers had to be offloaded and stamped out of one country and stamped into the other and customs inspections plus checks had to be undertaken.

Similarly, as NI is now a separate customs area to the UK, you’d have to stop and check every single train passing through. Quite apart from the break of gauge issues I mentioned before (as the UK uses standard gauge while the Ireland uses broad gauge). And, as the Isle of Man is also a separate customs area to the other two, you’d have to have a separate area to check goods and people in and out of the Isle of Man. Oh and speaking of breaks of gauge, the Isle of Man’s railway network is mostly narrow gauge. So you’re now linking together 3 incompatible railway systems.

For some strange reason there’s another tunnel leading to Scotland. And why would someone use this tunnel to get to Scotland when there’s a perfectly good road (the M6) and railway line running along side it that goes directly to the central belt? Furthermore, in the timescales for construction of this tunnel, Scotland might get independence. So you’d then need another large marshalling yard to check good into and out of Scotland. You’re going to be digging up half the Isle of Man and covering it with railway yards!

So why is such a crazy proposal being pursued? Well not because they actually plan on building anything (no doubt some Tory consultant will get a contract to waste a few million to prove the viability of the project). No, as always, Boris Johnson’s goal is to control the narrative. With the help of his media allies he aims to gaslight the public with propaganda and lies.

For example, the UK is on top for vaccinations you have likely been told. Well firstly that is largely down to the NHS (which the Tories want to sell off) not anything the government’s done. The only contribution to the vaccine made by the Tories was to try and insist on putting a union jack on the labels. Secondly, no, the UK is pretty high up the list but not on top, as the UK government is only issuing a single dose (then counting that as someone has been vaccinated) while most most other countries say you have to have the 2 doses within 4 weeks to count. And inevitably this means the UK is now slipping behind other countries.

Similarly we have the situation in NI where the DUP, aka the old testament with weekly bin collections, campaigned for brexit and are now upset with the consequences. Arlene Foster (who always seems to look like someone whose just swallowed a bee), back in December was touting the benefits of NI staying in the single market. Now they (with a little help from Kate Hoey, aka the Corbyn ally who pretends to be a labour supporter when she’s really a UKIP 5th columnist) are launching legal action, trying to have the NI protocol scrapped, even thought they know this would lead to a hard border with the rest of Ireland and likely a break down of the GFA.

Like the Tories, the DUP’s entire political position is based on lies and fantasy. They believe that they can have all the benefits of staying in the EU, without suffering any of the consequences of leaving, while ignoring the impossible trinity of brexit (CCP Grey has a good video on this here). And far from being worried about destroying the GFA, that’s their ultimate fantasy. They never wanted it in the first place and signed up to it only halfheartedly (Ian Paisley was famously known as Dr No for his tendency to say no, no, never… then maybe).

This was the problem with the GFA. The treaty was mostly negotiated by the moderates (John Hume of the SDLP and David Trimble of the UUP), with SF and the DUP (the political fronts for the terrorists) only supporting it because they’d have gotten frozen out of the political process if they hadn’t (and then likely all gotten arrested and sent to some US supermax prison). It should have been a condition of the Irish, British and the US that anyone who’d be previously involved in terrorism should stay out of politics (which still applies to quite a number of the front bench in SF and the DUP to this day).

Unfortunately, they naively assumed that the SDLP & UUP would take power…which ignores how elections work, how tribal the two communities are in NI and how populists can win by making outlandish promises they never keep. Consequently SF and the DUP have pretty much run NI into the ground, using Stormont as means to settle petty scores against one another while engaging in various money burning parties as they squander public money. NI receives far more tax payers money per head of population than any region of the UK, yet its GDP (per capita) is 80% that of the UK average and less than half that of the Irish republic.

And the situation in NI should serve as a warning for how the Tories policy, of basically running the country as a Chumacracy, could have serious long term consequences. The point is that this tunnel project shows that all the Tories have are their lies and empty promises. The UK has become a country where brexit is now the state the religion, ignorance is considered an asset and the truth is seen by the government as a threat.

The Boris Burrow delusion

The UK is most definitely in the post-truth era. In that we have a government whose goal is to do nothing useful, but control the narrative and, with the aid of their allies in the media, delude and distract the public… while they get on with the merry business of robbing from the poor to give to the hard up billionaires. And we see no greater example of this than the proposed tunnel between NI and Scotland. Or “the Boris Burrow” as the media are already calling it.

Firstly, it has to be acknowledged that Boris Johnson has a habit of vanity projects that don’t go anywhere, yet cost hundreds of millions of pounds. Examples being his garden bridge (which cost over £50 million, in consultancy fees for a bridge that wasn’t built) or Boris Island (his proposed £50 billion airport in the Thames estuary, that would be built next to a wrecked WW2 munitions ship and on the wrong side of London). So he has form here. But just to show how stupid an idea this is and how utterly divorced from reality it is, let look a bit deeper.

The problem is that right in the middle of the Irish sea, between NI and Scotland (assuming a connection via Galloway to Larne) is the Beaufort Dyke, a rift in the sea floor about 300m deep. That means your tunnel has to go below that, which would make it one of the deepest tunnels in the world, or go around it. Going around is probably a better idea, since its filled with WW2 munitions that occasionally explode.

Incidentally crossing from the Mull of Kintyre, would mean a much longer journey for traffic (it takes about 3-4hrs to drive from Glasgow to Campbeltown, about the time it takes the ferries to currently cross). And this would be directed down a peninsula with very poor road infrastructure, and no railway lines, with the situation not much better on the other side around Fair head. Furthermore, you’d have to drive any new road or railway line through mountainous terrain, with several obvious bottlenecks that are prone to land slips (the rest and be thankful being a good example).

So while the Galloway crossing is only about 55 km’s across, accounting for the detour around the Beaufort Dyke and approach tunnelling under land, you are probably looking at a distance of about 75 km’s, about 1.5 times longer than the channel tunnel. That cost about £16 billion in today’s money, so this project would cost a lot more, particularly when you consider that the rock under the channel was soft chalk, clay and Limestone, while the route of this tunnel will have to go through is much harder volcanic rock. This would cost a lot more to drill through (or more precisely to blast through) and take a lot longer. A shorter tunnel in Japan took 17 years to build and cost about $15 billion in today’s money. So a figure of at least double the channel tunnel’s cost (say £30 billion) is probably a more realistic cost. I don’t know, maybe Boris thinks he can find some cowboy builder to do if for him over a long weekend.

And given that it would be the 2040’s or 2050’s before the tunnel would be ready, there’s every chance Scotland will have left the UK by then and NI will be part of the south. So given the lack of enthusiasm and cross party support from Holyrood and Stormont, it would be a wasted exercise.

But okay, suppose it gets built anyway and in 2045 the first train arrives into Larne….and immediately derails. Why? Because Ireland used a form of Broad gauge for its railways, while the UK uses Standard gauge. For those not familiar with the history, there was a bit of a format war back in the 1840’s between those advocating standard gauge and broad gauge (and various other sizes in between). While in the UK the standard gauge advocates won (largely by default as their network was larger and thus it was easier to set everything to standard gauge) but the opposite happened in Ireland.

Given that Ireland has a shared rail network, with most of the NI train lines essentially being a branch line leading up from Dublin’s Connolly station, you’d have to either have a break of gauge at the tunnel exit (meaning you need to stop the train, get everyone off, off-load all cargo and then load them onto new trains), which would delay onwards travel and largely negate the benefits of a tunnel. Or you’d have to convert the entire rail network in Ireland, all 2700 km’s of track, to standard gauge.

To say this would be a huge job is to put it mildly. The Tories seem to think they can send some navies out to move one line of rails over and pay them with potatoes (after all they live in some sort of Victorian era fantasy). Think again, there is no such thing as a quick or cheap job when dealing with such an old railway network. You’d need to remove the rails and replace the sleepers, which means getting heavy equipment and cranes into the middle of a farmers field. You’d probably have to re-pack the track bed to account for the change in load distribution. And while you are at it, upgrade (or reinstall) signalling, points, etc.

And you have to do all this on an active railway line that you can’t just shutdown for a few years. So you’ll have one train on standard gauge going one way, another on broad gauge going the other and a large network of replacement buses in between. You’d be talking of the mother or all train disruptions going on for several years. And of course the trains themselves would need to be refurbished, with the bogies set to standard gauge. But of course with some of the rolling stock it won’t be cost effective to refurbish (I know a lot of Ireland’s rolling stock is sourced from other countries with non-standard gauge networks, such as Spain or Japan) so some this rolling stock will have to be scraped and replaced.

Even if we were to assume an absurdly low figure of £5-10 million per km (which might seem high but its low compared to the £300 million per mile being charged for HS2), plus a couple of billion more for new trains and to cover the economic costs of disruption, that’s £15-30 billion, almost as big a job as the tunnel itself. And it would only be fair (as its a UK idea) that some significant portion of those costs would be met by the UK rather than Ireland.

And while we are at it, the transport infrastructure on the Scottish side in Galloway isn’t the best (better than Kintyre, but still not great). To get the maximum benefit from the tunnel you’d want to put in a high speed rail line and a dual carriage way connection to the central belt. Plus a dual carriage way across from the M74/M6 near Carlisle would also be a good idea, as that would avoid the need for travellers from England to follow a bunch of B roads (or take a 100 km detour up to Glasgow and back down again). Again, you’d be spend figures in the order of £10’s of billions on all of this.

So add it all up, tunnel and support infrastructure you are looking at total costs in the order of £50 to £100 billion and several decades worth of construction work. That’s £7700 to £15000 for every man, woman and child on the island of Ireland or £28000 to £55000 per person in NI. Do you honestly think the Tories are going to spend that sort of money on a part of the country where they have no seats and very few supporters (and what few they have were fishermen, who aren’t likely to vote Tory again any time soon). Nevermind the fact that as the UK lacks the expertise to build a tunnel like this you’d have to bring in outside contractors (or to put that in Daily Mail terms, give tens of billions of taxpayers money to foreign multinationals and allow tens of thousands of migrant tunnel workers into the country).

And why are we doing this? Because the Tories awful brexit deal has screwed over the country, most notably NI. There will still be border checks and controls at the end of the tunnel. It changes nothing. Hell at those sorts of prices it would literally be cheaper to just cut the Unionists a £100k cheque each and pay them to move to England and still have change left to afford a gold plated statue of Boris that rotates so that it always faces the sun.

But of course you aren’t going to get such analysis from any pro-Tory newspaper. War is peace and all that. They will put a positive spin on it, much as they’ve been doing with brexit. Some Tory donors will be given generous contracts to consult on and plan for this enterprise, which will simply become yet another Tory money burning party funnelling public money into the offshore accounts of the rich and non-tax payers. And we have the nerve to call other countries corrupt.

So this bridge is just another brexit fantasy project. Another step in the Tories attempt to Americanise UK politics with false controversies. Its a dark illusion intended to distract the public from covid, brexit and their dismantling of the NHS.

The great vaccine gamble

Within the row over nationalistic hoarding of vaccines that’s been going on, there is wider problem being missed. How the vaccines are in many cases being squandered and how some politicians don’t seem to understand the purpose of vaccinations. Most notably, the UK Tory government. Who, much as with brexit, have a nasty happen of placing good PR and friendly news headlines over reality.

To be effective the vaccines have to be given in two doses, spaced 3-4 weeks apart. This is what the vaccine manufacturers recommend and what most countries are doing. But some, notably the UK government, is leaving a 12 week gap between vaccinations, while reporting anyone who has had the one dose as being vaccinated. In truth, during that 12 week period the vaccine is only about 50% effective (in other words a coin toss odds of picking it up). And that’s against the older strains of the virus, not the newer ones that have emerged recently. By contrast, with the 2nd jab immunity jumps to 90% (you are now ten times less likely to get infected, fives times better protected than with one jab).

Given these facts, you can understand the distress of NHS England staff who have only had the one dose and are still expected to treat covid patients. Meanwhile up here in Scotland, while it appears that Scotland is lagging behind England, in truth this is because they’ve been focusing on giving people (including all NHS staff) both jabs and as well as focusing on vaccinating in places like care homes in order to prevent possible superspreader events.

Consider that there is a version of the coronavirus that effects dogs (different to the current strain of course, which is a human to human virus). Fortunately, there is a vaccine, which it is recommended be administered in two doses to puppies (as the young are more likely to get infected) no more than 4 weeks apart, with a further booster doses every 3 years. In some countries this schedule is mandated by law. Yes, the UK’s covid vaccination policy for dogs is better than the one for NHS staff!

Now you might well say, but 50% is better than nothing. Yes, in an ideal world populated entirely by sensible people. However, there is a risk of luring people into a false sense of security. I’ve long noticed a tendency of older people to not follow the quarantine rules properly (e.g. nose sticking out of their mask, if they are actually wearing one of course), well give them the vaccine and tell them they are cured and what do you think they’ll do? Socially distance? LOL! In fact quite a number have been trying to book foreign holidays!

Also, the point of vaccination does introduce a small risk of infection, as you are bringing lots of people together in one place (its still worthwhile vaccinating people, but we have to acknowledge the risk v’s reward trade off, a tiny risk for a ten fold increase in protection). Case in point, I’ve heard from my relatives of a care home in Ireland which has managed to get through this crisis without a single case of covid….until a few weeks ago…after the vaccines were administered (it could just be a cruel coincidence, or it could be that somehow the virus slipped in with one of those administering it).

This is the problem with the Boris Johnson ‘s government, they are more interested in looking good for the cameras than actually dealing with problems. Their brexit policy amounts to hiding the problems and telling UK companies to get around the brexit red tape by moving to the EU (British jobs….for EU workers! and brexit was supposedly justified on removing red tape!).

Last week Boris ran up to Scotland, in violation of Covid rules in order to elbow his way into a photo op regarding a new Scottish made vaccine, before anyone Scottish could take credit for it. He then complained (with no hint of irony) about how a 2nd indy ref won’t be fair as people won’t know what they are voting for. If I was to go back in time and write a work of fiction about Boris and the Tories it would be rejected as too outlandish to be believable.

But this has been the problem with him from the start. He’s not a details person, but a pathological liar and that can be very dangerous. I had a boss like him once, also a public school boy, and his management style could be described as a mix between seagull manager (comes in, makes lots of noise, craps on everything and then leaves) and Monty python’s black knight (as in he doesn’t give up even when its clear he’s lost). He’d propose policy A, “consult” with the staff (in much the way Kim Jung-un “consults” with his people), we’d tell him it can’t work because of X, Y and Z. He’d conclude A was a great idea and instruct us to implement it. We’d point out that’s impossible (again because of X, Y and Z). He’d still insist and demote or remove anyone who refused to go ahead with it. Then when it failed, blame others for why he was never told about X, Y and Z. Rinse and repeat.

My guess is that Boris and his cabinet are much the same. They got it into their heads that the vaccine is some sort of silver bullet solution to the crisis, which its not. Its another tool that can be used to slow the spread of infection. Nothing more, nothing less. Its worth remembering vaccination doesn’t grant permanent immunity, it only works for about 6-12 months in all probability and new strains will emerge which the vaccine doesn’t work against (this is why you have to get a flu shot once a year).

We will still have to deal with Covid years from now, but having a vaccine, combined with a strong health service (which the Tories want to sell off) and an effective track and trace system (which we still don’t have in the UK) means outbreaks will be easier to control. It will just be like any other disease we have to cope with outbreaks of from time to time (the flu, west Nile virus, cholera, etc.). Although that said, given that it can easily spread from country to country there is little to be gained by one country (or the west) hoarding the vaccines and leaving large parts of the world un-vaccinated. This just guarantees further outbreaks and pandemics of covid into the future.

So there is a real danger that the vaccine will be squandered. Which will have pretty serious implications. There’s already a whole host of “plandemic” conspiracy theories going around, as well as anti-vacciers and inevitably if they start to hear cases of people who got the vaccine (i.e. only the one dose that’s not really effective) who then got sick and I think you can see where this could end up going.

To paraphrase a saying, when you prioritise good PR over reality you accrue a debt to the truth. Sooner or later that debt must be repaid.

The post-brexit options for Scotland

One of the outcomes of December’s brexit talks (aka the brexiters surrendering to reality) was how Gibraltar managed to secure a deal with Spain. This deal saw them join not just joining the single market but also Schengen (the EU’s open travel zone, i.e. johnny foreigner can now come and go as they please), as well as surrendering control of all of their ports, airport and border to Spain.

Think about it, Gibraltar, a colony that the brexiters have threatened to go to war with a NATO ally to defend, is now so deeply embedded in the EU that while Spanish and EU citizens, like me, can show our burgundy passports and be waved through, UK citizens with their blue UK passports (made in Poland) will have to queue in the 3rd country lane, fill in landing cards and customs declarations and be asked by Spanish border guards (in Spanish one assumes) about their business and reasons for visiting a British colony. And that’s if they aren’t turned around and told to go home, as is the case right now due to covid restrictions (UK and non-EU citizens are essentially bared from travel to the EU until the covid crisis is over unless they have an essential reason to travel).

Now you’d be forgiven for thinking the Tories would be up in arms about this. But actually no, they are cool with it, no complaints from London, lets talk about fish….actually second thoughts let’s talk about unicorns instead. Perhaps because they understand that their crappy brexit deal left Gibraltar with the choice between doing a deal with Spain or breaking with London altogether.

Of course it raises the question, well if Northern Ireland and Gibraltar can stay in the EU’s economic area, or indeed stay within Schengen (which is sort of EU+), why can’t Scotland? After all it would be good for Scotland, given its high value exports (Scotch whisky, Smoked salmon, Angus steaks, banking, etc.) and it would be good for the rest of the UK, as businesses could set up in Scotland (rather than in Ireland) and benefit from its easy access to the EU single market (paying their taxes to the UK exchequer).

Also it makes the NI protocol more likely to work long term. The issue with supplies right now in NI is that its a very small place. And its questionable how long it can survive by itself. Take for example UK supermarkets in NI, They now have to produce food and other items for NI separately in NI and label it appropriately or else move production to Southern Ireland. Many simply won’t do that as it doesn’t make any economic sense. However, add 8 million Scottish customers into the mix and it becomes a viable proposition, particularly when you consider that Scotland produces a lot of the ingredients that go into those food items itself.

But of course no matter how good an idea this is, Westminster won’t agree to it. For England’s relationship with Scotland (or NI and Wales) can be equated with that of an abusive and controlling partner. Maintaining their power over Scotland is the primary goal, even if it means sacrificing Scotland’s freedom, their joint prosperity and likely laying the seeds for the day the Scots make a bolt for the door and do anything to get out of this toxic relationship.

But won’t it mean customs checks at the Scottish/English border? Well yes and no. Goods destined for the Island of Ireland and the rest of the EU could just be waved through (ironically an electronic border would work well in this regard), as it would be more a matter of spot checks at Dover just in case someone pulled a fast one while the truck passed through England (e.g. loaded it up with Chlorinated Chicken and other items banned in the EU). Of course if there is a direct ferry link from Scotland to the EU (much like there now is from Ireland) then those checks can be bypassed completely.

For goods being exported to England from Scotland/NI checks need only be applied if there are items banned in the EU which England allows the sale of (again Chlorinated chicken or US made Cornish pasties and Scot Whisky) or visa versa (e.g. a US trade deal will likely require drugs be restricted to the price gouging US versions, while Scotland/NI will keep access to low cost medicine). Also, given how dependant the UK is on goods brought in from the EU (which includes most of its food), such border controls will apply anyway to Scotland (just down at Dover instead). The whole point of being in the customs union would be to remove or limit the scale of these checks and the billions in economic damage to Scotland.

In truth this is really a English problem, as its basically be a case of England imposing sanctions on itself. Now granted they are crazy enough to do more of that (after all, they just did it!). But it becomes a lot less likely if Scotland can exclude itself, as brexit is more about perceptions than facts (its not going to look so good for the English have to lose their consumer rights and pay through the nose for stuff when north of the border the Scot’s can get it for free on an NHS prescription).

In short its Tory sadopopulism at its worst. But there is a sneaky way for Scotland to get its way. Its widely expected that the SNP will top the poll in the upcoming Scottish parliamentary elections and then propose a referendum on Scottish independence.

However, I’d propose an alternative referendum. Ask two questions, the first says that Scotland should stay in the UK and attempt to join the EU customs union via a reverse Greenland option or on similar terms to NI or Gibraltar. However (and here’s the sneaky bit) there is a second question which says that if this isn’t possible (perhaps because Westminster blocks it or an EU country like Spain decides to play silly buggers), then do you wish Scotland to instead be an independent country. My guess is that given the mood right now in Scotland you could easily win a yes vote for both those questions with a reasonable majority.

This would put the cat among the pigeons down in Westminster. If they block a Customs union move, they will be triggering a constitutional crisis and essentially bouncing Holyrood into making a deceleration of independence. Now the Tories will say that’s illegal, but that doesn’t matter (who is going to arrest Nicola Sturgeon? She pays the cops salaries up here! Scot’s law remember is a different legal system from English law). It was also illegal when about half the countries on the planet declared their independence. The real question will other countries recognise it. And there’s all sorts of mischief the Scots can engage in to more or less force the English to kick them out of the union (e.g. have workers go on strike and cut off gas supplies to England, ask all taxpayers to stop paying taxes to Westminster and start paying them to Holyrood instead, printing off massive amounts of Scottish bank notes and devaluing Sterling).

Hell I could declare my house the independent republic of daryanistan and make the neighbour’s cat the king (he seems to think he is anyway!). The issue is that nobody would recognise it, the postman would refuse to show his passport and fill out a landing card when he came to deliver mail and the cops won’t recognise my diplomatic immunity when I try to buy a Main Battle Tank off Korea (for duck hunting, I swear!).

The danger for the Tories is that if it looks like they forced Scotland into an impossible position, countries might start to recognise its independence and you get a snowball effect (starts off with Ireland and a few smaller states, then some of the bigger ones until eventually someone like the US under Biden joins in) at which point the Tories are stuffed. It would be too big a gamble. They’d be better off accepting the outcome of the first question and running with that.

The same goes for EU states like Spain, they don’t want to make it easy for Scotland no (as that might encourage break away regions in their country), but they equally don’t want to give the SNP the pretext to unilaterally declare independence. It would be far better to focus on the trade negotiations.

On which point, I’m not suggesting they would be easy or quick. In much the same way the EU tried to steer the conversation in the UK/EU trade deal onto fish and goods (and away from services) the EU will do the same in any trade negotiations with Scotland. Now I doubt the SNP would be foolish enough to fall for that. But equally it will take sometime to negotiate a treaty. And much how the Tories couldn’t really afford to be patient when they knew the swivel eyed loon brigade were in a hurry (to get out of the EU so they could see their grandkids future destroyed before they died), the same is true of some SNP supporters (and as noted, the longer this goes on, the worse the economic damage).

So I’m not saying it would be easy, but it could be compromise that keeps everybody happy.

We told you so

So we’ve started to see the effects of brexit. Gaps are starting to appear on shelves, notably in the Fresh food isles (I’ve been able to get everything I need, with a bit of shopping around, but there’s clearly a reduced level of choice). Northern Ireland is particularly badly effected with job losses and food shortages seen as inevitable, and some UK owned stores within the EU are struggling and may have to close completely.

Meanwhile there has been some chaos at ports, with people showing up with the wrong paperwork (fortunately as many truckers shunned the ports this last week, this has avoided any lengthy tailbacks), but traders have warned it will get worse once the volume of lorries increases. In fact the problem with incorrect paperwork has gotten so bad, one courier has simply stopped delivering across the UK/EU border for the time being. Meanwhile some people who need access to certain medicines have seen their supplies cut off.

And ironically, give all the talk about fish, some fishermen in Scotland have been told to reduce their fish catch, or in some cases, had to stop fishing completely. The problem is that the infrastructure to allow them to export their produce just doesn’t exist. And given the potential for delays transporting the fish to Europe (who wants to buy 2 day old Scottish fish when freshly caught French fish is available), it doesn’t make sense to export (and if it takes longer to get the fish to market you are going to need more trucks to match the same demand and currently there is a shortage of trucks)….but I’m sure those unicorns we were all promised are on the way.

And speaking of Scotland, it will probably come as no surprise to learn that support for independence is surging, now at 58% and rising (that’s +13% rise since the 2014 referendum, most if it in the last year or so). Plus a poll from NI (just one for now, but clearly indicates a shift in opinion) has come out showing a majority in favour of re-unification for the first time.

Oh and, much as I predicted, the media have been papering over the cracks and hiding the impacts of brexit. When they mention them at all (e.g. the shortages in British owned supermarkets in the EU) they spin it as an opportunity for some nativist points scoring (as they see brexit as a re-run of the Italian job where we get to add up the scores and see who won, when in truth its a lose lose scenario for everyone). Or we have this piece from the BBC (the Brexit Bullsh*t Corp.) talking about the “surprising” and “unexpected” impacts of brexit (such as truckers having their sandwiches confiscated at the border).

Ya, surprising only if you’ve had your head in the sand for the last 5 years. Hell I wrote an article 9 years ago warning of the possible impacts of brexit. People were warned, they choice not to listen. If you don’t like the consequences (e.g. the UK now breaking up) well you are just going to have to accept them, its a little late in the day to start complaining. Its a millstone that leave/Tory voters are going to have to wear around their necks for the rest of their days.

Brexit Britain: “worldbeating” for all the wrong reasons

One phrase you keep on hearing from brexiters is worldbeating. They want their Empire 2.0 to reflect the warped vision of British exceptionalism beaten into them back in public school. And at least in some respects they are succeeding. The UK is now “worldbeating” for all of the wrong reasons.

Firstly its now official, the UK is one of the worst effected by Covid. While we can argue a bit about the figures (its likely some less developed countries are showing artificially lower figures due to less effective testing, or in some cases government manipulation of figures, something Trump is attempting in the US). But certainly in terms of countries where some level of testing is ongoing, England has the highest death rate in Europe and the UK is the 2nd worst in the world for per capita excess deaths. And its worth noting there is still some disparity within the UK as to the death rate from Covid in care homes (oddly enough while other countries are trying to get an accurate measure of these figures, the UK government seems to be trying to actively avoid such awkward questions).

Interestingly, while Scotland’s death rate is high by European standards (then again its part of the UK and subject to the same policies from Westminster), it is still lower than in England, vindicating the SNP’s decision to adopt their own approach independent of London in how they dealt with Covid.

So while the bungling incompetence of Boris Johnson & the PM…sorry “special adviser” Cummings has to be part of the problem, clearly the massive Tory cuts to healthcare is the main reason behind this “worldbeating” death rate. And no, before anyone says it, oh every government has failed to invest properly in healthcare (that’s just a coping mechanism for Tory voters trying to allay their guilty conscience). Every year that labour had control of the NHS budget it went up in excess of inflation. Every year the Tories were in charge it has gone down. Its that simple, they didn’t invest in healthcare and people died. When you voted for them, you voted to kill people.

The Tories response of course, rather than learning the error of their ways and reversing past policies, has been to double down, they’ve handed out contracts for testing or the prevision of PPE or ventilators to their chums and cronies, often without any proper tendering process and to companies who have no experience in that field (e.g. they handed medical testing contracts to an accountancy firm and the manufacture of ventilators to a manufacturer of diggers). And just in case you hadn’t guessed it, yes the key thing uniting all of these companies wasn’t their suitability to do the job, it was their donations to the Tory party (or that senior Tories sit on the board or work for them).

We were also promised a “worldbeating” contact and trace app…which didn’t work and drained people’s phone batteries thanks to all the spyware Cummings minions had installed on them. So while most EU states now have a working app and a contact tracing service to go with it, the UK has no app and a tracing service (predictably run by a Tory donor awarded under a no bid contract) that is in chaos. Of course the one benefit of using private firms linked to Tory donors, is that they will keep information private, allowing the government to cover up the extend of the crisis to the detriment of being able to deal effectively with it (hence why we’ve seen new local lockdowns spring up with no advance warning).

And we were told last election that you can’t vote for Corbyn, why he’ll nationalise everything and destroy the country. Well a recent report from the ONS has said that the UK’s railways have now been effectively nationalised by the Tories, to the point where things such as the debts held by the private firms running the railway’s should technically count as part of the UK government debt (and rail employees counted as civil servants in all but name).

The only difference is, that labour’s policy would have given the government more control over the service. Hence they could look at making improvements to the service or lowering ticket prices (which are completely out of control, seriously I had to buy a train ticket recently and it was only barely cheaper than renting a car). All in all the UK’s rail service offers some of the poorest value for money in the world (as a someone who has travelled in trains around the world, UK trains are the most expensive and offer a very poor quality of service). So another “worldbeating” success then.

British Trains are not only the most expensive in Europe, but some of the least reliable

And speaking of Corbyn, the tabloids were quick to drum up fear of his chums among the hard left “old guard” of the labour party during the election. And who do we see being nominated for the house of lords by Johnson? But hard left labour leavers such as Kate Hoey, Gisela Stuart, Frank Field and many others, such as Claire Fox (a member of the Revolutionary Communist party). They are allies of Corbyn, and while they were critical of him, that was because he didn’t back brexit more firmly (in a party that overwhelmingly supports remain) and they felt he took the whole Antisemitism thing too seriously (yes really!)….and these are the sort of people who Johnson, a Tory PM, who ran on an anti-Corbyn platform, wants as members of the house of lords. Go figure.

I’d further note that this more or less confirms what I’d long thought, that many of these labour MP’s were such hard core brexiters that they effectively sold out and betrayed their left wing principles, for which they are now being rewarded. There were efforts within labour to forge a middle ground (respect the referendum, campaign on the promise to negotiate a deal with Brussels, then put it to the people with remain or no deal as alternative options). However, these MP’s fought this process every step of the way. Even when Corbyn (who is also a brexiter of course) was cornered at conference and forced to adopt this compromise policy, this cabal of leavers persuaded him to not fully commit to it, which was one of the factors why labour lost the election (as neither remainers or leavers trusted labour on brexit anymore).

They also used their votes in parliament strategically to ensure labour lost several key votes (which of course Corbyn didn’t punish them for), even going against their own constituents (several represent strongly remain voting areas). Like I said, this can’t have been a coincidence. They were clearly working with the Tories and now they are collecting their twenty pieces of sliver. The only reason why Len McCluskey or Corbyn himself aren’t becoming lords as well is because even Daily Mail readers would smell a rat.

And speaking of which, Len McClusterfu*k is busy trying to undermine the labour party, by threatening to cut of funding (because settling out of court an anti-Semitism case might hurt Corbyn’s feelings…so better to destroy the party in order to save it).

And these labour Judases were not alone, a whole bunch of other people got peerages, including a Russian Oligarch linked to Putin (the son of a KGB agent no less). And this is on the back of the Russia report, which showed how Russian oligarchs and the Kremlin had undue influence on the UK. And the Tory response…make em lords of the land! Meanwhile John Bercow becomes one of the few speakers in history not to get a peerage.

Johnson with his mate (and now a lord) a Russian Oligarch friend…that’s taking control…if you are Putin that is!

But we are supposed to get a “world beating” set of trade deals….you mean like the ones we had while within the EU, with not just the EU and EEA nations but 50 nations other around the world. While it is true that trade talks between the EU and other nations (such as the US) have failed, that’s generally been because the EU negotiators concluded that such deals would be too detrimental to outweight the benefits (there is is certain give and take with trade deals). The same applies to the UK. You can have a trade deal…if you don’t mind making a lot of farmers unemployed. And you are prepared to lower your food safety standards or privatise the NHS.

And who is behind the UK’s trade policy? Another drinking buddy of Dominc Cummings & Michael Gove, who is seen as a “snake oil Merchant”, even by fellow leavers. And in Kent the local MP’s (who voted for brexit) are complaining about the plans to build several massive lorry parks to hold all the trucks queuing up after January. They want their no deal brexit…but only if everything stays exactly the same!

I’ve heard it asked whether Boris & co are pretending to be mad in the hope of getting a trade deal from the EU, or are they actually mad. I’d argue, neither is true, they are just corrupt. They know that their backers and donors can profit from a no deal (its called disaster capitalism) and they can blame everything on covid, the EU and migrants/poor people.

I previously compared the Tory government to Brazil’s operation carwash. In truth that is insulting to Brazil’s most corrupt politicians. They are no where near as bad as the Tories, who aren’t even bothering to try and hide their contempt for the people (there’s a Tory MP arrested for rape who is not even been suspended from the party). Yet what”s the bet many of the racist mugs who voted Tory last election will do so again next election. That is brexit Britain for you, a “worldbeating” kleptocracy.

Is it just me, but when Tories say “worldbeating” they mean sh*t. If so, if you’ll excuse me, I’ve got to go to the bathroom, I have some “worldbeating” business to take care of.

The Turkey’s prepare to vote for Christmas

So Corbyn played his trump card, that he had proof that the Tories are planning to privatise the NHS. Now I have to say (and I’m hardly known as a fan of Corbyn) that I’ve heard first and second hand accounts from at least two independent sources (one of whom works for the government and another in finance) who can back up his story. So no this is not coming from the Russians (clearly that’s just Cummings and the right wing media in damage control mode).

Even small details in Corbyn’s claims, such as their being 6 separate meetings between the US and UK trade delegations, is what I was told several months ago. I’ve not made a big deal out of it, simply because I assumed it was common knowledge. Then again, I don’t read any right wing newspapers so maybe I’m being a little naive.

But either way, yes if you vote Tory, you are probably voting to end the NHS, the rolling back of consumer safety, workers rights and environmental protection. That is pretty much a given. And before anyone says I’m alright jack I can afford to go private. Go ask an American sometime how much it costs them to get health insurance. And then there’s the out of pocket medical expenses the HMO’s don’t always cover. You can be spending a thousand dollars on an ambulance, several hundred for medicines, etc. Not only do Americans spend twice the amount on their privatised healthcare system, but the US government spends more subsidising a private system (per capita) than the UK spends on the NHS. So its going to cost the UK money not save it.

Yet despite it all, the Tories are still way ahead in the polls even thought they’ve had an awful campaign so far, where the PM has to be kept away from people, Mogg told to hide in his country estate and even Trump has been told to please keep his trap shut (least he blurt out something incriminating). But they are still likely too win, largely because the other parties haven’t worked out the Tory strategy and aren’t doing anything to counter it.

The Tories under Boris have completed their transformation into the UK Republican party. And the republican party mantra is, if you ain’t one of the 1% you can fu*k off. They can get away with this because they know that there’s enough people who will support them for a variety of reasons ranging from ideology, bigotry, racism, greed, stupidity and straight out sadism. For republicanism is at its heart sadopopulism. Tory/GOP supporters are quite okay with policies that make them worse off (or actually endanger their lives), so long as some other perceived enemy is also (or more severely) effected. I have it bad but at least them liberals/migrants/poor people have it worse.

And while you’d never get a majority to support that, such is the undemocratic nature of elections in the US and the UK its possible to get a majority control in government with only 30% of the votes. The brexit vote was carried by just 37% of voters (and many leave voters will be dead before brexit happens). Trump got 3 million less votes than Hilary and won with the support of just 25% of the electorate.

In short, the Tories are not a political party anymore but a tribe. Hence why many of the tactics the opposition are employing simply won’t work. Corbyn for example recently said that, given how he can’t get remainers to support him (cos he’s straight up lied to them dozens of times in a row), he was going to appeal to leave voters for the rest of the campaign LOL. Nothing he says will convince them to vote labour. Boris is the brexiters tribal chief, endorsed by the high priests of brexit (Farage, Mogg & Rothermere) and protected by the black magic of the tribe’s witch doctor (Cummings). Logic and facts have no meaning for Tory voters.

And since we are talking about it, no Trump is not going to be impeached. Do you really think republicans are that stupid they don’t know he’s committed a long list of numerous crimes, practically on a daily basis? They know it all too well, they just don’t care. He’s their tribal chief, until he’s deposed they’ll back him to the hilt (of course once they realise his goose is cooked then they’ll betray him, you can’t backstab someone without first getting behind them).

The only way of seeing him in a prison cell is for the democrats to win the 2020 election by whatever means necessary. Which means putting forward a candidate who has the best chance of beating him and uniting the left wing vote behind that candidate, regardless of which wing of the party they represent (no more of this Bernie or bust BS and someone needs to tell Bloomberg to pi*s off). Then they prevent another Trump from ever happening again by change the voting system to Proportional Representation, split up the job of president into head of state and head of government (as is the norm in most countries) and de-politicise the US judicial system (so nobody will ever be able to overturn Roe v’s Wade).

The same is true in the UK. The left and centre need to unite to stop the Tories. In any seat where the Tories have any chance of winning, there should only be one other candidate standing. Between now and election day is it that difficult for the candidates to get together and agree to all withdraw bar one, whom the rest endorse (with the understanding that said candidate will support a 2nd referendum and switching the UK’s voting system to PR). And incidentally, in quite a lot of seats in English cities the lib dems are often the 2nd placed party. In return many labour marginals could be moved into the safe seat category. This would turn the tables on the Tories.

Also it needs to be acknowledged that a big turn off for many voters is Corbyn. Put it this way, any election literature I’ve seen from labour this election (from the local candidate), doesn’t even mention Corbyn once. That’s how toxic he’s considered by even those within his own party. Rumours have it he was planning to quit in the spring anyway, so why not just make it official. He comes out and says that he’ll stay on in a caretaker capacity until brexit is sorted (one way or the other), then resign and let a new labour leader take over as PM. Furthermore, the initial focus of a labour government will be on resolving brexit and ending austerity. The more hard left policies such as re-nationalisation would be issues for the next PM to implement (or possibly a future government after another election).

This would essentially be a statement of fact. A labour government is not going to have time (or the money) for anything other than brexit and basically cleaning up the Tories mess, at least for the first year or two. Backbenchers and coalition partners will insist on these issues being prioritised. Admitting this reality would probably be enough of a compromise to persuade wavering remain voters (who will otherwise vote Tory to stop Corbyn) to back the coalition.

And similarly the lib dems need to drop their policy of revoking article 50 if they win. While yes it does make sense if you understand what’s going on (or how a 2nd referendum would actually pan out), but to anyone who isn’t a political expert it sounds arrogant and elitist. And its not like they are going to win a majority anyway. The SNP too should drop all talk of independence until after brexit. They haven’t much chance of winning a referendum until the damage of brexit/Boris has been demonstrated, so why talk up an issue now that will just cost you votes.

Of course, its highly unlikely any of this will happen. After all we are only having an election because the opposition were too pig headed to come together, oust Boris and his cabinet of ghouls and hold a 2nd referendum (then an election). If you’ve been on any labour/momentum social media recently they spent half their time moaning about the lib dems. You’d swear brexit and austernity was their idea. And the lib dems end up reciprocating.

And in fairness to the lib dems you only have to listen to the latest out of Len McCluskey’s dumb pie hole, in which he suggests that Corbyn should ignore what was said at conference and back leave. This has been the problem, you can’t trust anything Corbyn says because he can’t tie his shoe laces without first consulting with his cabal of toxic advisers.

Hence with a disunited left, its very likely the Tories will still win anyway. Doesn’t matter how badly they screw up, what pesky facts the opposition come up with, nor how out of touch or down right nasty the Tories sound. They will win because they don’t need a majority of voters to back them, just their tribe (who don’t care about the facts), a biased media (even the BBC have become so pro-Boris as to inspire meme’s) and an unfair voting system.

The Tory tribe don’t care how evil or corrupt their chief is, so long as he “shares the cake” and they get a crumb or two, they’ll still support him. Granted they might feel a little differently when they lose access to healthcare (as many older Tory voters are ultimately voting to die in a pool of their own piss on a dirty hospital floor), but it will be too late then. The Turkey’s are literally voting for Christmas.

A comment on mountain safety

There’s been a string of tragic accidents on the Scottish mountains this winter. Which is a little strange given how there’s actually been very little snow and fairly mild conditions (climate change I suppose, rather that a steady build up it all comes at once and then melts or avalanches off). A few weeks back two highly experienced climbers died on Ben Hope, while Ben Nevis has now seen three accidents with multiple fatalities, notably a fall off the ledge route and just the last few days three were killed in an avalanche in nearby number 5 gully.

Now inevitably the media position is, oh mountaineering, in particular these adrenaline junkies hanging off of cliffs, its really dangerous and should be banned. Well statistically, climbing is still safer than sports such as cycling, field sports, horse riding or water sports. So if you’re going to ban mountaineering, you’d have to ban these as well presumably. And according to mountain rescue statistics, in 2017, only 51% of call outs were for actual mountaineering related emergencies (although admittedly its usually more a 60/40 split). The rest are for things such as rescuing motorists trapped by snow or general search and rescue.

Another point is that a lot of these accidents have occurred on fairly easy routes. No. 5 gully and the ledge route are Scottish winter grade I or II, which is technically a winter scramble rather than an ice climb (easy climbing or hard walking depending on your point of view). In fact, this I’d argue is the problem, people are equating “easy” with “safe”, but that’s not the way it works.

The Ledge route for example (I’ve been up both of these routes before) is fairly exposed includes an airy scramble along a very narrow section of ridge. A grand day out, if the weather is good and you’ve a good head for heights. But certainly it comes with a certain level of risk, and that risk factor soars in the wrong sort of weather conditions or poor snow, or if the party is simply inexperienced (or poorly equipped). And no. 5 gully tends to accumulate rather a lot of snow and is thus prone to avalanches. It also tends to build up a large cornice on top and on at least one occasion I’ve been up it and we had to climb back down as we couldn’t safely break through the cornice without risking it collapsing on top of us.

Given that there was a “high” avalanche warning in effect on the north of Ben Nevis over the last few days one has to assume the climbers in the most recent accident either didn’t see the forecast. Or, as foreigners, they just weren’t aware that this particular gully is avalanche alley in the wrong sort of weather conditions.

But to be fair, I’ve seen scenarios where quite experienced climbers have gone out in bad conditions and argued, oh we can’t do Tower ridge today, lets do the ledge route or CMD arrete instead, that’s easy. And again, yes they are easy, but that doesn’t make them any safer in bad weather. If you’ve backed off one ridge because you think its unsafe, what magical thinking leads you to believe that another ridge on the same side of the same mountain (just narrower and more exposed!) is somehow immune to these dangers?

And for the record, its actually hillwalkers rather than climbers who are most likely to get into difficulty. Statistically only a tiny fraction of call outs are for climbers (94% hillwalkers, scrambling or climbing the remaining 6%), be it in summer or winter. The vast majority of accidents happen on well marked walking trails in summer (accidents being 3.5 times more likely to occur in summer than in winter). So this magical thinking extends to walkers as much as climbers, with people equating “easy” for “safe“, which isn’t always the case.

Careful navigation off the summit of Ben Nevis is essential, particularly in winter

Case in point, the pony track up Ben Nevis (otherwise known as “the tourist route”) is probably the most likely spot in the UK for a mountaineering accident. Because while on a sunny summer’s day its a nice easy walk along a wide path (so wide many climbers call it “the motorway”), it can be very different on a bad day. Snow and freezing temperatures on Ben Nevis in summer is not unheard of. While in winter, temperatures can plunge to below -30’C and the snow can be several metres deep (hiding any waypoints or features under deep snow). And the path passes by several large and dangerous gullies as it approaches the summit. Gullies that in winter might be hidden under massive cornices. So careful navigation off its summit is essential (meaning you need to know how to use a map and compass!).

As the saying goes, the mountain doesn’t know you’re experienced. And some of that experience should come with knowing when to go down or not even to bother going up in the first place (or if and when things go south, how to get out of dodge). Hence the golden rule of mountaineering “going to the summit is optional, coming back down is compulsory”.