Bourgeoisie Bunkers

daryanenergyblog

This may seem a somewhat ominous article given the times, but with many of the world’s elites retreating to their bolt holes, perhaps it is topically. For, if you are rich, one of the things to own these days is some sort of luxury “bourgeois bunker” to ride out the apocalypse. Which of course thanks to that 1% is a lot more likely, particularly given those around Trump, urging a return to work in the middle of a health crisis (for the plebs of course, they’ll be staying safe in their bunker!).

The Oppidum luxury bunker in the Czech republic

However, I think the 1% don’t appreciate certain realities of any post-apocalypse world. For example, I came across this old article from the Guardian some time ago which discusses how some of the well to do plan to ride out a potential apocalypse. Apparently…

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How not to panic buy

And in relation to my previous post, the panic buying of loo roll and such like is an excellent example of Bob’s law (a term that comes up in Judge Dredd comics, that it only takes a couple of loons to kick off before all the other morons join in). I mean at least now they are stockpiling Pasta and tinned food. That’s better right? 

Well not really. I didn’t have to panic buy, because I’ve always kept a floating stockpile of food in the house to cover emergencies like this (the only tins I’ll be opening are the ones close to the use by date and the only time I’ll be having pasta is when I’m having spaghetti bolognaise). I do have some long life food, but that’s as much to support any camping trips, than as an emergency food reserve.

The problem with pasta is that it is useless unless you can cook it (so if the grid goes down, and the odd brown out here and there is a possibility, you’re stuffed). And Pasta is just carbs, not a lot else. Fine if you are going to run a marathon, but its not the sort of thing you’d want to eat every day. Trust me, a week of eating nothing but pasta and you’ll be hugging the first coughing person you come across. Tinned food is a bit better, its handy and easy to reheat, plus does offer a more varied diet. But it has a high salt content and isn’t the sort of stuff you’d want to live off of.

So what should you stockpile? (or perhaps what should people have done several months ago, cos trying to do it now is too little too late!). Well, the same food you normally eat. The idea is to treat this as a logistics problem, rather than going the full Trump voting prepper. The supply chains have become more heavily stretched leading to temporary shortages. So that means running with a larger inventory of items in reserve, to give yourself some flexibility in terms of when you need to restock.

This is a problem we come across in engineering. We don’t want to have to warehouse large number of parts, that’s expensive and if we suddenly discover that some of the parts are defective (because of say a miss-calibrated machine), that a lot of metal to ship back to the manufacturer for rework (or being thrown out). So you try to keep things as lean as possible, ideally holding only enough stock as you need on the factory floor between deliveries. Of course if some of your parts have to come from China, or across the Atlantic, well you are going to have to bite the bullet and just hold more of them in reserve.

As for sensible emergency rations, just in case things go completely pear shaped, well one thing I often have on camping trips is instant noodles. They are compact, light, easy to carry, come in a variety of flavours, and they are quick and easy to cook. Plus you can add something to them (smoked sausage, vegetables, bit of cheese etc.) to make a one pot meal. Freeze dried food and dehydrated foods (some of which can be also eaten cold), or powdered soups are all good choices. Ya, not as good as fresh food, but better than pasta for breakfast, lunch and dinner. And they can be quickly cooked using a single pot and a small gas stove. And of course there’s your humble sandwich, which can be eaten cold at any time (and which you can also freeze if you don’t want to eat it straight away).

While tinned potatoes, veg and fruits are handy, you don’t necessarily need to go that far (not unless you plan to self isolate for several months!). Many types of fruit and veg will keep for quite some time before going off, so long as they are stored properly (how do you think the potato farmer stores them year round?). And on the carnivore side, there’s smoked meats and fish, which also keeps for a several months.

That said, this crisis isn’t simply going to blow over in a few weeks. The best guess is that it will take several months for the virus to run its course and probably about a year before a vaccine is available. So trying to ride it out for the duration is going to require a pretty hefty supply of such rations. Unless you own a warehouse, I’m not sure if that plan will work.

How then do the supermarkets stop panic buying? Well I’d limit purchases to a maximum of 2 of any item and a maximum of 12 items total per person for a few weeks. There is as much a psychological aspect to the panic buying as there is a logistics issue. Retailers would also be advised to cut the number of items they sell (i.e. one or two brands of soap rather than a dozen) and make sure there is plenty of those items on the shelves (perhaps even closing until they can ensure this). If people see empty shelves one day, then some small number of items the next, they’ll try to clean them out (well the selfish ones will anyway, and it doesn’t take many of them to ruin it for everyone). If they simply can’t do that because there’s adequate stocks (and they can only buy 2 anyway), then the irrational forces driving this panic buying will subside and we can then go back to normal shopping behaviour.

That said, a no deal brexit could be a different kettle of fish, as there might actually be a shortages of supplies afterwards, so such tactics might not work. And any sort of delays at the border will make the lean manufacturing model I mentioned impossible (yet equally, the idea we can replace parts from the EU with America, the other side of the Atlantic Ocean is farcical to say the least).

As for loo roll. Well if you run out of that, Rupert Murdoch produces a wide variety of alternative loo rolls worldwide, as does other brands, such as the Daily Mail. Strong long and thoroughly absorbent.

The Coronavirus and the failings of populism

So like me, I suspect most readers have by now been confined by Covid. But I think its important we understand how we got here. I enquired in a prior post as to whether dumb anti-vax, climate change denying populism was more or less dangerous than the Covid-19 virus. Well it would appear both have teamed up to create a complete sh&t show. Italy’s death tool now exceeds that of China’s (that’s what happens when you put anti-vacciers in charge of your healthcare!). Populism in Italy is literally killing people.

It starts off with denial. Be in the local officials in Wuhan Provence who didn’t want to make waves, the racists in Italy claiming it was a Chinese problem, or the likes of Trump claiming it was no worse than the flu (which is simply not the case, there’s a big difference between a annual winter flu bug and a pandemic flu, its still unclear where on that curve Covid-19 sits).

Then when it becomes clear such denial of basic scientific facts has created a health crisis (and given how badly many populists have miss-managed their nations healthcare, the last thing they need is some virus killing off all of their boomer age voters), you get rash ham fisted authoritarian measures being imposed, with not much thought for the consequences or the practicality of such measures. Case in point, Boris Johnson even asked the likes of car and digger manufacturers if they could make ventilators for the NHS (would you want to be rigged up to medical equipment made by a digger manufacturer?).

Hey Boomer!

A big part of the problem is that many are not factoring in human nature or the macro economic effects. The Italians say they are going to lock down entire cities, what does everyone do? Start travelling! I had a whole bunch of students from Italy and other EU states up and leave as soon as they heard this. Trump’s decision to ban flights to the EU (while initially keeping them open to Ireland and the UK) was clearly a vindictive move on his part to have a dig at the EU because he could. And of course this just meant that everyone got on a flight to the US via London or Dublin. And as many were US citizens, its not like they can be bared from entry.

The lock down in Spain has prompted many UK and Irish to head home (personally I’d take my chances with the Spanish healthcare system than the UK’s, but Ireland maybe there’s some logic to it, given how about 50% of the world’s ventilators are made in Ireland). And offering special shopping times for the elderly? Well you end up with lots of coughing boomers in the same shop at the same time, complaining about how the selves are empty since they bought everything on them the previous day.

And also of course, predictably the plutocrats behind these populists are trying to exploit the crisis for financial gain. Trump has laid out tax cuts that clearly benefit the wealthy. The UK governments £350 billion package, is clearly just a big slush fund to the benefit of big business. In fact, you can tell as much by the fact the market crashes stalled (you know how rigged a system is when a government comes out with a policy that is utter nonsense and unworkable and share prices go up rather than down).

In fact, let’s talk about the economic impact. If anything I’m surprised the markets haven’t dropped further. I don’t think people appreciate the economic calamity here. The previous financial crisis may have started in the mortgage market. But it became a great recession because in the immediate aftermath, everyone became Ebenezer Scrooge and stopped spending. That’s pretty much what we are facing now. In Ireland alone, its been estimated that 58,000 have already lost their jobs due to the shutting down of shops and bars and hundreds of thousands more will follow. In the UK the film industry alone we are looking at 170,000 lay-offs.

So its not difficult too see how this outbreak could quickly turn into another large economic depression. What use is mortgage relief to someone who isn’t paying a mortgage. Many small business live pay check to pay check, so without some sort of swift injection of cash, they will go under pretty quickly. And interest rates can go to zero and it still won’t matter if you’ve no cash flow to pay any loans back with. And closing schools means single parents can’t work, which is devastating to their income. Now the plutocrats might well not care about the little guy. But they will when millions of people stop paying their rents, or default on the credit card/student debts.

I suppose the one sliver lining is that the crisis has led to some progressive policies making it into the mainstream. We have for example Amazon, one of the most Libertarian and Talyorist companies in the world, suddenly discovering the benefits of sick pay (no doubt when the bosses realised that they were better off having sick employees stay at home and not come into work and cough on them). Who knows, next thing Jeff Bezo’s might even pay some taxes! We also have the road to Damascus conversion of Fox News going from “its a democratic hoax” to “the biggest crisis in history” in the matter of a week. And the US government is now going to supply free testing kits for Covid-19. Who knows, this could be a step towards a single payer healthcare system.

Hell one could argue the best use for that £350 billion the UK government is throwing around is to just give the money out to people as a form of universal basic income. That’s about £5,800 for every person in UK, about £112 per week. Given to just low income families, you could double or triple that number. That would help to offset many of the economic effects I mentioned earlier.

And with brexit talks in limbo its going to be interesting to see if the government sticks with its plans for a end to the transition period and a no deal brexit in December. Because if you think the shortages in the shops are bad now, wait until a no deal brexit happens and then you’ll know what real shortages look like. Already this is having consequences (as much of the medicines and medical equipment needed to deal with any pandemic come from the EU).

As for all of this “flatten the curve” business, it kind of ignores how these viruses progress. They come in waves. What we are currently seeing is just the first wave. The 2nd will strike at some point, likely in the autumn/late summer period. Possibly it will be a milder form of the virus. Or like Spainsh flu it might even be worse. So the idea that you can keep the country under lock down for the 12 weeks Boris Johnson is suggesting is a little implausible.

Certainly yes, because the populist fu&ked up, we’ve been stuck with the problem and have had to impose the strict measures to contain it. But my point is that the idea that we can all hide indoors until the develop a vaccine is a little implausible (that is going to take the best part of a year). Some sort of middle ground will be needed, whereby some semblance of normality is restored, once the worst of it is over, but with enough precautionary measures to limit any 2nd (or third) wave that emerges. That could allow bars and restaurants to re-open, but you’d still discourage large public gatherings and advise companies to allow employees to work from home where possible.

And finally, there is the elephant in the room, which nobody’s talking about. Its now considered very likely that the virus, much like several other pandemics, emerged in one of China’s “wet markets”. Aside from the horrible animals welfare issues surrounding these markets, they are a potent breeding ground for all sorts of viruses, as you’ve many different animals being stored and slaughtered in close proximity to one another.

Yet the Chinese government has done nothing to ban these markets. When asked they claim, oh we’d just drive them under ground if we banned them. Are you kidding me? China is one of the most scrutinised and watched populations in the world. You’re seriously tell me that you can find someone comparing the leader to Winnie the Pooh, yet you can’t find someone walking around with the cages of several wild animals. But it just shows you that even the Chinese government is a slave to populism at times.

But this crisis also shows, that when push comes to shove, even the most right wing or libertarian governments will take action. Which is what worries me about climate change. Eventually action will have to be taken to contain it. Not taking action today, will mean more disruption, deaths and economic cost further down the line, until it becomes a massive threat to the survival of entire nations (and the wealth of its ruling elites).

But at this stage the more free market friendly options will not be available, so governments will have no choice but to go for the more extreme and authoritarian measures (in other words, today you can do your bit by buying an electric car and sourcing your energy from renewables, but if we delay too long, then governments will simply ban private car ownership and strictly ration energy supplies). In fact its worth noting that the shutdowns due to the Coronavirus have already decreased emissions significantly. This is the trap that right wingers are falling into and they need to realise it sooner rather than later.

Fossil Fuel phaseout in Germany: A case study

daryanenergyblog

I came across an interesting documentary here from Australian TV regarding Germany’s phase out of coal. It is definitely worth a look.

Germany currently gets a little less than half its electricity from renewables

Mention Germany’s growth in renewables (currently contributing 46% of Germany’s electricity) and inevitably someone will bring up the fact that Germany still gets a lot of power from coal, worse lignite (otherwise known as “brown coal”). Of course such individuals merely demonstrate that they are poor at maths, being unable to tell the difference between the 60% coal used to contribute to Germany’s electricity production and the 30% it has now fallen too. This forms part of an overall 30% drop in Germany’s  carbon emissions since 1990 (note when I say overall, I mean everything, not just electricity).

While Germany is still a bit off its proposed targets (which aims for…

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The chickens come home to roost for populism

I’ve not talked much about the Coronavirus as I was waiting until it was clear whether or not it would go viral (if you’ll pardon the pun). Outbreaks like this do happen, we had SARS back in 2002, MERS in 2012 and there’s been one or two Ebola outbreaks in Africa. All were ultimately contained. While there has been a large outbreak of the Coronavirus in China, the authorities there seem to now have the situation under control. The death rate from the disease is also relatively low (3-4%, at least in China), much lower than with either SARS or MERS. However, there’s been some worrying developments that do give cause for concern.

Firstly, we need to remember that this isn’t China’s first rodeo. They’ve seen outbreaks like this several times now (notably SARS) and are much more experienced at dealing with them. They have been able to take draconian measures no western democracy could even consider. At the start of the outbreak China built two entire prefabricated hospital in Wuhan in ten days (clearly part of some sort of national contingency plan to deal with something like this). I mean the UK takes ten years to build just one hospital!

By contrast, some of the responses outside of China have been ham-fisted, amateurish and downright foolhardy. Take the quarantine of a cruise ship in Japan. While yes, it has been common practice for centuries to quarantine ships in harbour, but this was generally intended for small cargo ships with a crew of a few dozen. Imposing such measures on a cruise ship with over 4,000 on board is practically ringing the dinner bell for this virus. Even confined to their rooms it can (and did) spread easily via the air conditioning ducts, the staff (as they handed out food or serviced the rooms) and the ship’s open balconies.

Then we have the rapid spread of the virus in Italy, with a death rate ten times higher than in China. Not really surprising, Italy is under the control of Five star and the affected provinces are controlled by the Northern League, both anti-vacciers. They’re policies have already led to measles outbreaks in Italy (the irony is one of those five stars stands for better public health!). And in Iran too (run by Ayatollahs who aren’t exactly well known for their faith in science) we’ve seen the numbers climb alarmingly. This is what happens when you put cranks and nutters in charge of your healthcare system. Populism is literally hazardous to ones health.

The Populist solution to a virus, send in the Army, who can hopefully shoot the microbes

It is for good reason that the WHO is warning that the world simply isn’t ready for a Coronavirus outbreak. Here in the UK, the NHS is at breaking point. Treating people on trolleys in corridors is now the norm. Its been revealed there’s only capacity to treat 15 patients with severe breathing difficulties across the entire country and doctors have declared the government’s strategy and advice as regards the virus as clueless. Can you imagine what would happen if UK hospitals suddenly had to face a surge of patients due to this virus. As in Italy the likely outcome would be a death rate much higher than in China (SARS and MERS for the record ran closer to 10-30%).

The status of the NHS is no accident, its been a deliberate strategy by the Tories to run the NHS into the ground just so they can privatise it. However, that plan could now backfire. It could lead to a backlash against them, such that they’ll have to retain it, the bits already privatised might fail and the country will be left with an expensive bill (which means putting up taxes). Quite apart from the problem that the most likely victims of any outbreak are going to be Boomer’s, who mostly vote Tory. Killing off your own voters is not a sensible long term political strategy.

And in America, the Trump administration has been up to something similar. Aware that they can’t really get rid of Obamacare, as then they’d have to replace it (and almost anything else is worse from their point of view). So they’ve been trying to run it into the ground. Rural hospitals have been closed down, services withdrawn, the costs for medical services has soared. And who has Trump picked to lead the fight against the coronavirus? Mike Pence, a believer in faith healing. I hope Trump voters feel so much safer knowing that!

All of these chickens will come home to roost if the Coronavirus makes it to US shores. Aside from the potential for many deaths from this virus, there’s the enormous economic damage it could have. And one wonders about the financial future of America’s private healthcare industry after millions of Americans show up in hospital and begin demanding expensive medical treatments at the vastly inflated prices charged state side. It could easily cause the entire private health insurance system to unravel. Which, irony of ironies, could lead to single payer healthcare system.

So does this means the populists are all going to learn their lesson on the value of taking science and experts seriously? LOL. Ya and in other news a Leopard changed its spots. No, pesky little facts don’t matter to populists. The explosion of conspiracy theories and misinformation regarding this virus shows that. They will blame it all on immigrants and poor people, same as the do for everything else, in fact they’ve already started.

I mean just look at Ireland and the recent election, where Sinn Fein did rather well. It is a known fact that Sinn Fein and the IRA have worked closely together for years and that the IRA is still active. Yet you can have people in their 60’s, who saw the troubles first hand denying these facts, even when a leading member of SF celebrates their election success by shouting “up the RA”. Apparently its all media bias against them (yes the media shows they are biased against SF by accurately reporting what they say).

SF did well in the election, probably in no small part to their buddies in Moscow (they’ve failed to back sanctions against Russia and have made various pro-Kremlin noises & send delegations to Moscow from time to time), where a campaign was pushed on social media focusing on hospital beds and high rents effecting young people (the irony of course is that the last government introduced rent controls and build more hospitals). But since when have populists let the truth get in the way of an election campaign. And yes SF includes some of the usual anti-vacciers, conspiracy theorists, anti-Semites and other wacky crankery. Just the sort of people we need in charge in the middle of a pandemic.

This is what you are dealing with when it comes to populists. Facts don’t matter to them, only whatever opinions happen to match their own. Their minds are capable of undertaking feats of mental gymnastics that would make Simone Biles dizzy. And the left wing populists are just as prone to this as the right wingers. Populism is a delusionary disease of the mind. And I’d say the jury is out as to which is more dangerous, populism or the coronavirus.