In previous posts I’ve talked about the many problems with crypto, not too mention the outright scams such as Onecoin. Well what’s happened since then has been a sort of lord of the flies like social experiment. What would happen if we lived in a world run according to libertarian principles? Well, you end up with instability, scams galore, massive market crashes and an inevitable government crackdown, as the grown ups have to come in and clean up the mess.
Now to be clear, I’m not ruling out the possibility that cryptocurrencies will have some role to play in the future. However, that is only going to happen when they are well regulated and thus crypto assets are safe for the majority of people to use (without fear of a rug pull). We are a long way from that. And if anything the antics of many in the crypto space makes this harder to achieve.
Firstly we have seen large volatility as well as a massive price crash across most crypto currencies over the last few months. Bitcoin for example is now down 75% and Etherum 70%, with more than $2 trillion wiped off the value of all crypto assets since the start of the so-called Crypto winter. This is on a scale of market crash not seen in regular commodities since the great depression. Yes the crypto bro’s are making bankers look honest and competent!
And to if you are HODL’ing Bitcoin, well at least its still worth something. Many crypto currencies, some subject to marketing by celebrities, have essentially been wiped out completely, with tens of billions of losses (then again, should you really be taking financial advice from Kim Kardashian!). Some of these were outright scams from the beginning. I mean when the term “rug pull” enters the language, you know its bad and its something you should run a mile from. Especially given how frequently those doing the rug pulling were getting away with it over and over again. Only online investigators and concerned citizens seeming to take any notice.
However some crypto projects might not have started out as scams. But inevitably when the going got tough and things started to go south, often times those behind the coin (with no regulator to stop them) went rogue (not surprising as many libertarians subscribe to objectivism), as they sought to enrich themselves at the expense of the investors. The downfall of the the “stablecoins” Luna and Celsius being good examples.
But why do these stable coins keep on failing? Why can’t they compete with the US dollar or Euro? Well for the very reasons that libertarians hate national currencies. They are backed by a government who can and will do whatever it takes to protect the value of their currency (with the possible exception of the Tory party, although for now the Bank of England has control). They will raise or lower taxes/interest rates, run the money printer, buy back bonds, cease private gold reserves (libertarian gold bugs tend to ignore this one) and even start wars. Whatever it takes (not saying this is a good thing, but its the reality of the world we live in). No crypto can compete with that.
Speaking of which, as mentioned in a prior post, El Salvador has made Bitcoin its official currency. How’d that work out? Well actually better than I expected…..in that the entire economy hasn’t completely collapsed. Although that seems to be more down to the fact the bulk of citizens just ignored their crypto-bro president and kept using dollars. Even so it’s resulted in huge losses for such a small country, which is going to cause all sorts of problems long term.
NFT’s – Non flushable turd’s
Then we have NFT’s (and the above is one of the more polite definitions I’ve heard). Now these do have some purpose, in that they allow digital artists (and I mean actual ones, not the ones hawking ugly pictures of apes) to sell their wares and commissions online. However, inevitably the crypto hype train showed up and does what it does to any good idea – blow it out of all proportions and create an unsustainable bubble of outright scams. Which inevitably pops and results in billions in losses.
Firstly, there are some major questions as to the legality of NFT’s. Quite simply put, its far from proven in law that they represent a legally enforceable contract. All you are essentially buying with an NFT is a html link. So if the website the other end disappears, you are kind of screwed. Now this might not be a problem for an established digital artist, selling digital artworks and commissions (3d images, paintings, etc.) to clients for a few thousand (as the NFT is really just a receipt). But its kind of important if you are engaging in speculative trade of crude bitmaps for hundreds of thousands.
For example, some people are going around, right clicking and saving NFT’s. Which is making those buying them rather upset, as in calling for the FBI to do something (the irony of libertarians calling for the big bad government to save them being lost on them). Well, even if we ignore the legal issues earlier, that’s not how copyright law works. Its sort of the job of the copyright holder to track down any violators and sue them in court.
Companies will spend tens of millions or more per year on lawyers and private investigators defending their intellectual property. So all you are buying with an NFT is some bragging rights and the hefty cost of defending those bragging rights in court…forever! And regular companies are careful to pick the battles they are going to fight (e.g. the time record companies tried to sue people for downloading mp3’s and just made the problem worse). Then there is the issue of fair use. While it is a bit anti-social to be copying NFT’s, then emailing the owner and calling him an idiot. But it is technically a form of commentary or criticism and thus falls under fair use.
Part of the problem here is that NFT’s are being sold as an alternative to fine art. But that’s a very different thing. Yes some billionaires are buying fine art works for investment purposes. But a lot of them are doing it because they have lots of cash and, well why not? You can’t hang a billion dollars worth of bills on your bathroom wall. But even those that do invest in fine art are doing so as part of a strategy of diversification. Its not so much that they think fine art prices will keep rising. Its that they are worried that if they leave it all in assets like property or, say the UK pound or shares, what if those fall in value (and all three of those in the UK are currently falling in value at the same time). In short its a hedge.
Of course art prices are getting a bit silly these days, given that there are no grand masters around to make new paintings and demand is outstripping supply. A bubble bursting and the prices dropping in the future is a possibility. This won’t effect billionaires much, as they will only record a loss if the prices fall below the price they bought at. And only if they actually sell the painting (and its easier to just sit on it and wait for prices to recover). A Monet is still a Monet, it might not be worth the funny money people are now paying for it, but it will always be worth tens of millions of pounds. Plus, billionaires have a get out clause – they just donate the painting to charity and write it off against their taxes.
This is not the case for ordinary punters buying NFT’s. Here there is no mechanism to restrict supply (and every incentive to saturate the market and make off like bandits), most investors don’t have the deep pockets of billionaires and hence the price can go all the way down to zero. Its actually quite a high risk an high maintenance investment. And again, as with crypto prices, NFT’s have fallen a cumulative +90% since the bubble burst back in 2021. with no sign of these drops easing up.
The end result of all of this has been that literally trillions of dollars has gone up in smoke, which is the sort of sums that is going to get government worried. After all, if someone loses their life savings on crypto, guess who has to pay for their retirement instead. And we are seeing organised criminal gangs and even rogue governments (such as North Korea or Russia) getting involved in crypto. So as you can imagine, the crackdown is coming.
Firstly governments have begun to ask the obvious question, do crypto assets count as securities? That is too say do people primarily buy them for investment purposes. Given that the bulk of the actual exchange of crypto assets (not linked to crime), are for investment purposes, its hard to avoid the conclusion that yes they are securities. If so, then they risk falling under government regulation. This would mean registering with regulators, such as the SEC, filing regular reports, complying with rules and guidelines, which by the way would include complying with laws prohibiting insider trading, as well as regulating the transfer of assets between countries.
The other side of the crackdown is law enforcement going after the crypto bro’s themselves. Namely those doing the rug pulls or other unethical and illegal practices. They may have thought they were safe from arrest, but it turns out that stealing still counts as stealing and federal persecutors in several countries have begun to go after them. While initially this has focused more on the more obvious targets e.g. the flashy ones who posted on Instagram pictures of themselves in private jets and with fast cars or the ones who went around posting rap videos (not sure if they were arrested for crypto scams or the terrible singing). But they are working their way up the food chain. For example, the developers of Tornado cash, a literal money laundering app have been arrested. I mean you have to ask, what did they think was going to happen? It reminds me of the time in Glasgow someone tried to rob a taxi….outside a police station! (I concluded after living next to a cop shop for a year or two there’s a reason criminals choose crime as a career, they’d ain’t smart enough to do anything else!).
Either way it does look like the crypto party is sort of over for now. Like I said, I’m not against the idea of cryptocurrencies. But only when the serve a useful purpose for society, rather than another mechanism for exploitation and help criminals evade the law. These issues with crypto are nothing new, they’ve been around for years, but the crypto community refused to acknowledge these issues. Now they are having to face up to a very hefty dose of reality bites.
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