Brexiter elites conspire

For quite some time now in the UK if you argue against brexit, you are labelled as an elitist, defying the will of the people….even thought polls increasing show “the will of the people” has turned against brexit. Actually, I’d argue its the other way around. Brexit was sold to people by certain elites with an agenda (hedge fund managers, tax dodgers, ambitious politicians, Russian Oligarchs, FSB agents) as the snake oil that will cure all aliments. However its now obvious to all but the most deluded that this isn’t the case. Go to any news article about brexit and the comments will be filled with either remainers making smart remarks, or leave voters claiming this isn’t what they voted for.

However, rather than accept this reality, the elites, in both labour and the Tory party, all of whom are insulated from the effects of brexit by their wealth and status, have decided to sweep the whole thing under the carpet. After, if they were to tackle it head on, they’ve have to first own up to the fact they’ve been lying to voters for the past 7 years. And obviously they value their pride above the health of the nation.

Hence we hear news of a secret meeting between prominent members of both labour and the Tory party about brexit. A story I might also add, that most of the major newspapers have censored, along with the BBC (aka The Brexit Bigot’s Cabal). Were they figuring out how to rejoin the customs union? (the obvious fix to the present problems and closer to the brexit vision sold to the public in 2016). No, don’t be silly! They were there to discuss how to handle the window dressing, how to co-ordinate their messaging on brexit. Or in other words conspiring about how labour and the Tories can continue to gaslight the public.

Why the Tories want to ignore the realities of brexit should be obvious. They knew it was an act of self harm that would tank the UK economy. But they also knew that certain aforementioned individuals would benefit from it (and they can score a few after dinner speeches off of them, or a no work “consultancy job” after the next election…not that the UK is corrupt or anything). Plus, as a hard brexit would decimate the UK tax base (to the tune of £40 billion last year, that’s about £770 million per week), it would give them the excuse they needed to gut the public sector and turn the country into some sort of libertarian wet dream. Not to mention ideological reasons (Empire 2.0 and all that).

However for labour its a bit more complicated. Back during the Blair/Brown era labour failed to correct the many consequences of Thatcher’s economic legacy, which had gutted the industrial sector, turning many once thriving mining and industrial towns into welfare colonies. Now it has to be said, labour weren’t completely idle. They specifically targeted deprived areas with extra funding (which the Tories cut and gave to wealthier Tory districts), as did the EU (ironically enough!). But it was a sticky plaster that didn’t address the wider issues. For example, as I pointed out before, the German’s shut all of their deep pit mines without a single redundancy. Labour under Blair seemed to assume all these ex-miners (in their 50’s) would run off and become IT professionals.

And there was certain cold logic to this. Ultimately poor people and the young don’t tend to vote (and its not like people in northern England would be dumb enough to vote Tory…oh wait!). Elections in the UK are decided by older middle class voters south of the Watford gap. So labour focused on placating these voters instead. And it worked….right up until the financial crash! Trouble was, the crash only happened because they failed to reign in the markets and take away the Thatcherite punch bowl when the party started to get rowdy (largely because Blair was terrified of being labelled “old labour” by the Tory tabloids). Which meant they ended up taking the blame for the resulting crash.

This resentment played a role in the strong brexit vote in certain labour seats. That said, it also has to be remembered that in most UK seats the party who wins the seat rarely enjoy’s marjority support (such is the nature of 1st past the post, if you can get just 26% of the vote and the remaing support splits across 4 candidates such that none get more than 25.9%, you win). Thus these seats voted for brexit because those who vote Tory & UKIP combined with those who norrmally don’t vote (but had read in the paper they’d get £350 million a week if they voted for a unicorn) to overwhelm the labour vote. A situation not helped by the lack of effort on the part of Corbyn to sell the remain vote in labour seats.

Either way, the sensible thing to do would be to sit down and have an intelligent conversation with people about what they wanted and what could be done. So if people really wanted brexit (rather than just voting for it as an up yours to Westminster) then what kind of brexit do you want? Because the different options have various different consequences. In short, labour should have gone into listen mode. And I mean listening to their own voters in the red wall, not the Tory tabloid press.

But instead none of this happened….largely because Corbyn actually wanted brexit to go ahead anyway (and the only people he listened too were his cabal of lexiter & UKIP advisers). And Starmer has failed to correct this error. He even whipped labour into voting for the various brexit bills (even though they were going to pass anyway). Hence labour have been completely silent on the many sort comings of brexit ignoring a virtually open goal, leaving it up to the SNP and lib dems to call out the Tories.

To say this is going to go badly for labour is to put it mildly. You see the impact of brexit is going to get worse as time rolls on (its like a slow wasting disease). Plus some of its worse effects are being hidden from the public, as the media fails to report on such stories and the government is purposely delaying implementing certain damaging measures. For example while UK food trucks going into Europe are being subjected to significant scrutiny, EU food deliveries entering the UK are often being waved through (which is illegal under WTO rules, plus it does raise certain risks to UK food security). This is because the Tories know that if they applied the necessary checks it would cause a massive spike in food prices (higher than we’ve already seen) as well as shortages in some areas.

So its all too easy to see what’s going to happen. Firstly the Tory press will hound labour throughout the next election claiming Starmer and labour are going to steal “our brexit”. He’ll probably be forced to swear on a bible he won’t so much as look at an EU flag for 5 years. Then as soon as labour take power, the tabloids will start making a big deal about the above arrangements, as well as running all the other anti-brexit stories they’ve been sitting on (e.g. while OUR exports to EU have to queue for HOURS, Starmer and his PRO-EU cronies wave EU trucks through OUR border). They might even get a pro-Tory foreign government (such as those whom the UK has signed a trade deal with), to launch a trade dispute at the WTO (which they are within their rights to do, as what the UK is doing is illegal).

Labour is then forced to impose the aforementioned checks, supermarket shelves go empty, prices soar and people run short of food. And the tabloids will then claim that labour have mismanaged brexit. And as soon as polls are back in the Tories favour, they’ll be looking for an early election. And if and when they get back in they can blame the brexit mess on labour (same as they did with the financial crash). History might not repeat, but it often rhymes.

My point is you cannot trust the Tories. They are a party of two faced backstabbers who will say or do anything, so long as they get their way. The morality or legality of their actions being of little concern to them (most of the chief’s of police and judges went to the same schools as them, so its not like they are going to get arrest or anything). To them, chaos is a ladder. And of course nothing that goes wrong is ever their fault. Labour are being set up for a fall and Starmer is walking right into it.

Now there’s some who will argue that the Tories are looking for help in defeating the ERG. Or that labour needs to just pretend to be pro brexit, until they get into power. Well firstly, if the Tories are going to fight each other, why should labour do anything to prevent that? After all, it might split the party and bring about an early election. Secondly, I fail to see how labour gaslighting the public is any morally different from the Tories. Thirdly, labour won’t be able to pass any legislation unless they have a democratic mandate to do so (which means putting something, such as rejoining the customs union, in the manifesto and winning an election). Not least because the EU isn’t going to give the UK the time of day, unless they are shown there has been a major shift in public attitudes regarding brexit.

Labour need to sit down with the public and work out some sort of national plan for recovery. This could be done via a series of citizens forums. This should include a realistic appraisal of brexit. Notably that the current arrangements, if fully implemented, are going to have major economic consequences (more expensive food & living costs, and less growth also means less tax revenue, so less money to pay for hospitals and pensions). My guess is weighting up the public mood, a customs union type arrangement would likely be deemed an acceptable compromise.

Similarly they need to challenge the dangerous rhetoric regarding immigration (not least because the Tories will play the race card next election). The reality is brexit has replaced a two way flow of often short term migration (brits going to leave and work in the EU for a few years, while EU citizens come here) with a sharp rise in long term migration from outside the EU (which has led to a decline in salaries and working conditions in some industries), nevermind the people coming across in small boats. Again, its likely some sort of arrangement can then be negotiated with Brussels (the idea that brexit would somehow “fix” immigration was always a myth).

Its also important to involve the other parties in this discussion, as well as doing an electoral deal with parties such as the lib dems in order to avoid the left wing vote splitting. I’d also argue in favour of proportional representation, as that makes it virtually impossible for a Tory majority government ever being in this sort of position of power again (the Tories have not gotten more than 50% of the vote since the 1920’s, typically they poll at around 40-33%, well short of a majority, while left wing parties tend to make up the remaining 60-70%).

The Tories don’t fear a labour government that’s basically going to do nothing other than nibble at the crusts of the crap sandwich they’ve inherited. What they fear is a labour government that actually changes things for the better (or locks them out of power completely). Because that would likely be the end of them. And their elite non-dom masters, the real architects of brexit, would likely be run out of town.