Way back, when brexit was just a twinkle in Farage’s eye, I did point out that one of the likely consequences of brexit would be to end the special relationship between the UK and the US. While I wasn’t saying they’d go to war or anything, but the UK’s influence over the US was in part based on its membership of the EU. Leave the EU and that meant losing that influence. Inevitably the US would start courting other members of the club instead.
And if anyone doubted this we had proof the other day with Boris Johnson appearing on Fox and Friends in an effort to influence Trump and talk him out of pulling out of the Iran deal. That’s how remote the UK now is, no visit to the oval office, nor was the UK even consulted. No instead, our foreign secretary is so far removed from the actual decision making that he has to appear on a morning breakfast show and hope Trump is watching.
And keep in mind, Trump pulling out of the Iran deal has implications for the UK. If the UK (along with the rest of Europe) ignores Trump and doesn’t reimpose sanctions, they could face counter sanctions (and a freeze on trade talks) in return. On the other hand, imposing sanctions on Iran would result in considerable political blowback on the UK (at a time when it can least afford that) and the loss of trade (and complicating the UK’s attempts to get trade deals with the rest of the world post-brexit).
I mean let’s pause for a minute and imagine what the conservative press would say if the UK foreign secretary under labour went to Washington and Obama was too busy to meet them, forcing him (or her) to go on breakfast TV instead and try to curry favour with Obama by trying to flatter him. And imagine if Obama did something similar without actually bothering to consult with the UK or EU. The right wing media (both sides of the Atlantic) would be foaming at the mouth one assumes. But there’s one rule for GOP presidents, another for democrats.
And again, this is as good as it gets for the brexiters. Once Trump gets either impeached, or reined in by his adviser’s (i.e. its pointed out that he need to screw the British over in any trade deal, or he’ll get himself in trouble), the UK can expect a much bumpier ride. They’ve brought forward his visit to the UK to July. However, that to me sounds risky. Trump get’s greeted by massive protests, he’s liable to get the hump and take his toys home. In short, its a tactic (much like Boris Johnson’s appearance on Fox) that could backfire badly.