Why the left keeps on loosing

So despite the fact brexit is clearly becoming an ever growing clusterfuck, the labour party are still silent on the matter. They have had an open goal with which to attack the tories for a year now. They could be pointing to the obvious failures of Tory brexit policy, how its causing real and crippling hardship for many and then explain to the public what labour would do differently (such as going into a customs union or getting a free trade deal). That after all, is how you win elections. You identify the problem and thus why a vote for your party will make things better.

But no, labour isn’t doing any of this. Supposedly because Starmer doesn’t want to piss off the leave supporters in so called “red wall seats”. This unfortunately ignores certain realities and is just a repeat of Corybn’s failed brexit policy that led labour to a history defeat. As I’ve pointed out before, this myth of the working class brexiter is somewhat exaggerated. Yes some did vote leave, but the vast majority of leave voters in these constituencies were “comfortable leavers” (i.e. retired, middle or upper class Tories & UKIPer’s) as well as those who don’t normally vote (but had been promised £350 million if they voted for a leaf). And besides, the primary reason the red wall flipped is more down to demographics than anything to do with brexit (as they represent an ageing population, who are more likely to vote tory).

Among labour supporters support for remain runs at between 90-70% depending how you phrase the question (i.e. labour voter or labour party member, pro-single market or back in completely). And this figure has been getting higher over time not lower. And generally what lexiters do exist tend to be on the softer side of leave (i.e. they’d be willing to accept a customs union if it means they can buy food again at a reasonable price). So Starmer’s master plan is to give the Tories a free pass on an potentially election winning issue, piss off 90-70% of labour supporters (and hope they don’t go and join the lib dem’s), just to avoid offending the ego of a mostly Tory voting bloc in the north.

But ok, maybe I have it all wrong. Maybe this lexiter voting bloc is the key to winning the next election. And that its even possible for labour to get them to back Starmer (cos polls say otherwise!). Well there are rail strikes on right now, being led by the RMT union, who famously backed leave (and thus managed to get several hundred of their workers fired as a consequence). If this voting block is so critical, why isn’t Starmer out there showing solidarity with the rail workers? Why isn’t he promising that labour will improve working conditions for all blue collar workers. Notably, by closing the loopholes that have allowed companies to become even more dependant on migrant workers since brexit, the opposite of what the Tories promised. Again, this is how you win elections.

But no instead, he told senior labour MP’s not to go near the strikers with a barge poll. This may have something to do with the fact that the Tory tabloids tried to blame labour for the strikes. Yes, 12 years of Tory government and a rail strike is labour’s fault. That’s how demented they are. And how brainwashed Tory voters are, in that the tabloids can get away with making such a ludicrous claim. I’m pretty sure if Starmer tackled a suicide bomber and prevented a major attack they’d accuse him of being Islamophobic and failing to respect social distancing rules.

But either way, it would appear that actually Starmer’s “don’t mention the war brexit” policy is more about image and avoiding nasty attack articles from Tory tabloids, than actually trying to win over lexiters. Spoiler, that’s not going to work either! The tabloids are ideologically committed to the Tories. They will always attack labour and cover for the Tories no matter what happens. You’ve got more odds trying to talk the Pope out of being catholic.

In fact its interesting to note that the RMT’s leader Mike Lynch has managed the press far better than labour recently. How? By not playing the media’s game. They try to trap him with some “gotcha” and he just ignores them and points out he’s here to talk about the issues. He ends up coming off sounding fairly reasonable, while the mask falls off the reporter (exposing them as a fanatical Tory shill).

That’s how labour should be handling the press. Announce policies that will win votes. And, far from sugar coating them, instead I’d make sure they are as provocative to the Tory press as possible (e.g. banning foreign billionaires living in tax havens from owning newspapers). This will provoke them into go on a rant, exposing their bias. And I’d use alternative media to get the message out, bypassing the main stream media as much as possible (do the bare minimum of interviews on the BBC and don’t even bother talking to the Tory press at all).

Yes I’m sure the Daily Fail/express editors would cough up their skulls, but so what. In some respect’s that work’s in labour’s favour. Under a FpTP electoral system you don’t win by getting a majority to vote for you (no government in the UK has actually achieved that since 1930’s). You win by promoting policies that are attractive to the people who might actually vote for you and making sure you get the vote out. You do deals with other parties to ensure tactical voting, while making sure the other side are left conflicted and divided (i.e. the other reason to bring up brexit is to get the Tories fighting with each other again). If labour can get in, what the Tory press think won’t matter anymore (not after their owner is banned from owning them and a public enquiry into press conduct means they are forced to shut down). But instead he’s letting Tory newspapers decide labour policy. Let me know how that one works out for you.

The Handmaiden’s tale

Meanwhile, over in the US we had the inevitable overturning of Roe v Wade. This is something the republicans have been openly working on for several decades. And too be clear this was a political decision, not a legal one…with a touch of racism (inevitably it dove tails into the usual white power stuff). Which means everything in the US constitution is now at risk, from basic civil rights to gun rights.

Unelected lackeys of the republican party are in a position to re-write the constitution and ignore public opinion (which is overwhelmingly pro-choice). In fact you can tell it was politically motivated by how they announced a pro-gun ruling right before the abortion one, specifically to distract the gun lobby, even thought it changes nothing (if Roe v Wade can be overturned, then if ever a liberal majority gets control of the court, they can overturn many of the pro-gun rulings too).

The democrats have done nothing to stop the GOP’s plans, despite multiple opportunities to do so. They had a high enough majority several times to pass a law at least (if not a constitutional amendment) codifying Roe v Wade into US law, but they didn’t. They could have reformed how justices are picked (none of these justices would even be allowed on the bench in most other countries, as justices are supposed to be impartial and not biased towards one party), but they didn’t.

And there are measure they could still take to reign in the republicans. In Ireland for example we resolved the abortion debate with a national referendum. Why don’t the democrats do the same? There’s a massive majority who are pro-choice, even among republicans. Even a non-legally binding vote would be very damaging to the republican party, as they would have to campaign on a single issue at odds with the views of the majority of their supporters (this was one of the factors in the collapse of labour support in Scotland, the party backed a no vote in the indyref and Corbyn hid in his shed during the brexit referendum, destroying their support base). But nope the democrats aren’t going to do that.

The democrats could also exploit the fact that it is mostly democrat voting states like California or NY that fund the US federal government. In fact even with red states you’ll often find the major cities (who also pay the bulk of the taxes) are firmly blue. America’s welfare queens are the GOP. So draw up budgets that cuts funding to anything that benefits republicans, such as farm subsidies, mining/oil exploration, rural road construction, military defence contracts & bases (often awarded on the basis of pork barrel politics rather than what delivers the best value for money, so such cuts won’t even necessarily impair America’s defence, just save money). Gut it all and starve the beast. This would very quickly force the republicans to change course, as such cuts would literally destroy the republican party, by eliminating their natural majority in rural areas.

And another factor in the politically motivated timing of this announcement was how it happened in the middle of the January 6th hearings. It looks like Trump might have led an insurrection and broken the law (nooo! really??? well no $hit Sherlock!). Which raises the question – why isn’t he in jail? Maybe I’ve watched too many cop shows, but my understanding was that if a crime is alleged to have occurred, the police (or in this case the justice department) investigate. If they find sufficient evidence for a prosecution they make arrests and only then do we get a public hearing (otherwise known as “a trial”), where we get to hear all the evidence. A jury then decides on the verdict. If congress does get involved, its usually after the trial, as part of a postmortem to avoid this happening again.

But no, instead we are getting it ass backwards, which likely means Trump and the republicans will get away with it, and will be free to take their revenge after they win again in 2024 (and they will win, I don’t see how the democrats are going to avoid that given the pig’s ear they are making of things right now). But how would we avoid these mistakes? Well by political reform. Introduce proportional representation, to counter GOP gerrymandering. Amend the constitution so that neither justices nor politicians can alter it (only the people via a referendum) and de-politicise the supreme court. But again, nope none of that’s going to happen. Its not even on the agenda.

Instead the democrats master plan is to piss in the wind and hope they can guilt trip the republicans into doing the right thing. Well, you can’t guilt trip someone who has no guilt, shame nor a shred of honesty. Republicans see thousands murdered yearly as a result of their pro gun policies, yet do nothing about it. Do you honestly think appealing to their better nature is going to get you anywhere? Instead republicans see this stance of the democrats as a sign of weakness. Like Putin (who must be very happy with this ruling) the republicans think they can get away with anything and they will continue to test the limits of that up to the point of ending democracy altogether.

The problem with the left is they don’t think strategically. Instead they seem to assume everybody else feels the same way as they do and will do the right thing (how’s that been working out for you?). They don’t even seem to realise they are effectively in the middle of an undeclared civil war with republicans for the very future of the US as a democracy.

And there’s a certain lack of ruthlessness. Yes good politics is about good compromise. But a compromise requires both sides to make concessions….and its certainly not going to work when one side’s is trying to destroy democracy itself. In such situations, you have to give them a reason to come crawling back to the negotiating table. Else they’ll just keep walking all over you.

Roe v’s Wade being overturned is a symptom of a wider problem: American democracy is broken

So it looks like the conservative majority in the Supreme court is about to overturn Roe v’s Wade, sending abortion rights in America back to the 1970’s. But this is about way more than abortion rights. If those can be overturned, then so can pretty much anything else, such as LGBT rights, freedom from discrimination (back to the Jim Crow days) and freedom of speech and the right to protest.

And while some on the right might not see the problem with that, the issue is it cuts both ways. A precedent is being set. If the left ever get control of the court again (and a few dead justices is all that takes), they can also overturn gun rights (until the last few decades the Supreme court viewed the 2nd amendment as provisions for civil defence not personal defence). Or the right of corporations to incorporate. So this is crossing a Rubicon into very dangerous territory for the US. It could well mark the point where the US ceased to be even a partial democracy and instead became more autocratic. And it might not always be the right who are pulling those autocratic levers. Particularly as overturning Roe v Wade will likely radicalise the left.

Consider that in Ireland, we recently resolved the abortion question via a public forum followed by a referendum. Why don’t the republicans just do the same? Because they know they’ll lose! Support for Roe v’s Wade runs at up to 77% nationwide and even 60% among republicans, although support does drop to closer to 60% overall if you phrase the question differently (such as allowing abortion, but applying more restrictions). And, given that there’s lots of other things the republicans know the vast majority of Americans are in favour of, but they and their corporate masters are against (such as paid maternity leave, higher minimum wages, free college tuition), the last thing they want is to set a precedent (the people? What have they got to do with how the country is run!).

So instead they are using an undemocratic approach by perverting the supreme court. And thus undermining its authority as a supposedly unbiased and politically independent entity. In short, the republicans have just crapped on the US constitution and are using the bill of rights to wipe their ass.

In contrast to this most other democracies have gone out of their way to stop this happening. In Ireland for example the careers of politicians have been ruined and governments have fallen over attempts to get an inappropriate justice onto the high court (Ireland’s version of the Supreme court). And said justice’s have generally resigned pretty quickly (as in less that 48 hrs), as they understand the risk they run in destroying the reputation of the court, quite apart from the potential damage to their own career (in Ireland you aren’t allowed to serve as a barrister in a lower court in which you’ve previously served as a judge. Meaning an ex-high court judge is essentially disbarred. The bar association can overturn this, but they are unlikely to do this for any judge whose brought the entire legal system into disrepute).

So the republicans are crapping on the constitution and the democrats are angry about it. To which I have to ask, why? I mean its not like they’ve been quiet about it. They’ve been openly talking about subverting the supreme court for decades. It goes back to a point I made before, about the main reason why the left is failing in America, the complete and utter political illiteracy of so many progressive’s who don’t seem to have a clue how politics works.

Recently they tried to force a vote enshrining abortion rights into US law….why didn’t you do this sooner, like decades ago, when you had a majority in both houses in favour of it? It sounds like you are trying to close the stable door after the horse has bolted. Or we have the fact that Ruth Bader Ginsberg, who must have surely known she wasn’t long for this world, arrogantly remaining on the bench, when there was an opportunity for Obama to replace her. And how the republicans refused to replace Scalia and Obama just sort of went along with that, rather than trying to force the issue.

Then we have the Bernie or bust brigade….who ended up getting a bust….of Trump! Yes Hilary was never my cup of tea, but once it became obvious it was a choice between her and a Putin wannabe, it was pretty clear who everyone needed to get behind. If you voted against Hilary in 2016, well this is as much on you as it is on the republicans.

Then Mr Vanilla comes along….and falls asleep at the wheel. Sleepy Joe had many options, ranging from packing the supreme court, to launching an investigation into the justice’s appointed by Trump and seeing if they could be removed from office (likely they’d jump before being pushed). But he did nothing. And why they hell is Trump, who tried to launch a coup on January 6th, still wandering around and not in an orange jump suit. Do you know what would happen to any democrat who tried to launch a coup? They’d have been wired up to old sparky by now.

This is as much a consequence of democratic ineptitude and incompetence, as it is the undermining of US democracy by the republicans. How can this happen? Because neither side in congress really cares about it. Do you think the sons and daughters of GOP or democratic politicians are going to be personally effected by the overturning of Roe v Wade? Of course not. Much as in Ireland “taking the boat” became a euphemism for going overseas for an abortion, they same will be true in the US…only it will involve a private jet to a Swiss clinic for most of the elites. This judgement only effects poor people.

The only reason the democrats are even pretending to care is because they have to for the sake of appearances (if they really cared they’d have done something about it sooner or be threatening to organise an Irish style referendum on it). Its the unfortunate reality of America’s broken political system, where politicians can royally screw up, or commit the most awful crimes and not only get away with it, but not suffer any consequences.

Case in point, its often not understood that support for abortion rights isn’t a simple matter of democrat v’s republican, red state v’s blue. There is stronger support for abortion rights in Alaska (63%) than in California (57%). Have a guess which way the two republican senators from Alaska voted in the recent vote in congress. Similarly Susan Collins was shocked to discover that Brett Kavanaugh (a sex offender) or Amy Barrett (a pro-life wacko), would lie under oath during their confirmations (I mean if you can’t trust a rapist or a religious fanatic who can you trust!). Again, even thought she represents a state that is 64% in favour of abortion rights, she voted against the abortion bill (and after some protesters scrawled a message about this outside her house, she called the police, so she ain’t too keen on freedom of speech either).

This happens because of the ridiculous US two party system that means the vast majority of US members of congress are in extremely safe seats, with virtually no chance of being unseated, regardless of what they do in office. I mean do you honestly think Alaskan’s who’ve just been screwed over, their abortion rights crapped on (which, as I mentioned, raises the risk of other rights, such as gun ownership rights, going eventually), that they are going to go and vote democrat? They’d sooner pull out their own teeth!

On the other hand, what would get a senator fired would be going against the party (who will inevitably have dirt on them). Hence why so many in both parties often toe the line, even when its clearly goes against the wishes of their constituents (in other words, they are more loyal to their party and corporate sponsors than they are to voters). Similarly there is no real system in place to investigate corrupt congressmen or judges (who’ve been known to go out and buy shares in a company before granting a favourable ruling) and punish them for their misdeeds (they investigate themselves, which is like putting the fox in charge of the hen house).

By contrast, in Europe, any politician who behaved like this would be committing political suicide. There’s no way they could hope to survive re-election under a PR voting system after pulling a stunt like this. And there are mechanisms in place to investigate political corruption. Case in point, Denmark’s former immigration minster was recently jailed for separating migrant families (something that routinely happened under Trump). And France jailed its former Prime minster, for a job’s-for-the-boys scam (again the sort of thing that was been practically routine under Trump).

So perhaps the real lesson from all of this that Americans need to learn is just how dirty, corrupt and undemocratic America truly is. Its not the shinning city on the hill, its a shotgun shack in swamp filled with alligators.

Freedom day…or plague day?

So the UK government is planning to remove all covid restrictions on the 19th of July. This will include no more compulsory mask wearing indoors or on public transport (you know, places where you won’t see the politicians making this decision), and your boss can demand you have to come into work again (while he works from home!). This is despite a rapidly rising number of cases, higher in fact than when previous lockdown’s were imposed. And the government doesn’t seem to be phased by any of this, even when experts point to the potential risks of such a move.

As I discussed previously, the Tories have gotten into their heads that the vaccine is a sliver bullet solution to the crisis. They aren’t even looking at infection rates, only vaccination rates. They have had to be dragged kicking and screaming into each lockdown (which was often made worse by how slow they were to take action, meaning it had to drag on for longer and cause more disruption) and its clear they’ve never given up on their idea of herd immunity. And the other governments in the UK, while they seem a bit more cautious, but they also seem to be going along with this vaccine theory (whether they will hold the course is a different question).

The problem here is, the vaccine is just a tool, its not a complete solution. Not least because variants will emerge which vaccines aren’t effective against. And the immunity it brings is only temporary, lasting maybe 6-12 months at best. And with only about 50% of the population fully vaccinated, with it unlikely to be any higher than 60% by the proposed date, we are nowhere near to achieve herd immunity. And what are the half of the population who aren’t yet vaccinated supposed to do?

Now the Tories will say, well that’s your own fault for not getting vaccinated. But there will be some who for example can’t get the vaccine for medical reasons (this was why Captain Tom died of Covid after all). Or maybe they missed one of their appointments for some reason, e.g. they were abroad and thanks to brexit, not entitled to a dose in the EU anymore, and thus had to wait until they could arrange to travel back to the UK, then join the queue for the vaccine. Or maybe they are just towards the back of the queue (given that the Tories prioritised by age, i.e. how likely it is you’ll vote Tory, rather than by need or likelihood of infection).

Consider my position, I’ve had my first dose, but won’t be getting my 2nd jab till the end of the month. So, given that it takes 2 weeks after the 2nd jab to gain the full protection, I won’t be fully vaccinated until early August. What am I supposed to do? Lock myself in my house from the 19th of July? And if my employer complains, take the last of my holidays or pretend to be sick?

The government says we have to learn to live with covid. Yes and learning is a process. Covid is not the flu. That’s like arguing that the best way to learn how to fly a plane is to just jump in the cockpit and figure it out as you go. I’d argue that mask wearing, while it could be eased off in some situations, its still definitely needed indoors in places like supermarkets or public transport or anywhere you can’t really socially distance. Those measures have to stay. Recall that while a mask doesn’t protect you much from infection, it does prevent you from infecting others, this is the whole reason why those compulsory mask rules were introduced.

And if you’ve got a home office, surely bosses shouldn’t be able to force you in to work if you can work perfectly well from home. Also places such as theatres, flights, night clubs, access should be restricted only to those who have been fully vaccinated.

The UK still lacks an effective track and trace system (despite tens of billions thrown at Tory donors). There has to be a system of rapid testing, which has to be freely available (if people have to pay, they won’t use it). Ironically, they’ve just started offering free covid tests here in Scotland, which you can use without an appointment….but they will end on the 17th of July (so what use is that to anyone!).

And its also worth remembering the purpose of the lockdowns was to avoid a situation where hospitals got overwhelmed and started to run out of beds, medicines, etc. This is pretty much what happened in India recently and the results weren’t pretty (e.g. there’s been an epidemic in India of doctors being attacked by distressed relatives, so much so some have gone on strike). The danger is that opening up again without any of these precautions will run the risk of that happening in the UK.

So while yes the hospitalisation and death rates are low right now, that could climb alarmingly. And if and when it does, it will be too late to do anything. Cases could be running into the millions, even another lockdown might not work. And new variants, some of which the vaccine might not be effective against become more likely to emerge. So this would also represent a public health risk to other countries.

Inevitably, the real reason for this push to lift restrictions is down to money. Maintaining the current restrictions will be more expensive. And they are Tories after all. How can they get on with the business of cutting public services and privatising the NHS if we are still in crisis mode. Those projects would take a year or two and if these covid measure go on for much longer, they won’t have enough time to implement them before the next election (plus they need to take advantage of labour infighting while they can).

Plus they know most Tory voters are thick as two planks. Even if they do end up killing a few thousand more of them (on top of the hundreds of thousands they’ve already killed due to their inaction), so its not like its going to cost them any votes. Of course this is exactly what they did last summer, but then had to abandon it, when cases inevitable spiked again.

So the public health of millions of people is being put at risk for the most cynical of political reasons. Yes it might work out fine for them, but its a fairly large gamble and they are gambling with thousands of lives.

The great vaccine gamble

Within the row over nationalistic hoarding of vaccines that’s been going on, there is wider problem being missed. How the vaccines are in many cases being squandered and how some politicians don’t seem to understand the purpose of vaccinations. Most notably, the UK Tory government. Who, much as with brexit, have a nasty happen of placing good PR and friendly news headlines over reality.

To be effective the vaccines have to be given in two doses, spaced 3-4 weeks apart. This is what the vaccine manufacturers recommend and what most countries are doing. But some, notably the UK government, is leaving a 12 week gap between vaccinations, while reporting anyone who has had the one dose as being vaccinated. In truth, during that 12 week period the vaccine is only about 50% effective (in other words a coin toss odds of picking it up). And that’s against the older strains of the virus, not the newer ones that have emerged recently. By contrast, with the 2nd jab immunity jumps to 90% (you are now ten times less likely to get infected, fives times better protected than with one jab).

Given these facts, you can understand the distress of NHS England staff who have only had the one dose and are still expected to treat covid patients. Meanwhile up here in Scotland, while it appears that Scotland is lagging behind England, in truth this is because they’ve been focusing on giving people (including all NHS staff) both jabs and as well as focusing on vaccinating in places like care homes in order to prevent possible superspreader events.

Consider that there is a version of the coronavirus that effects dogs (different to the current strain of course, which is a human to human virus). Fortunately, there is a vaccine, which it is recommended be administered in two doses to puppies (as the young are more likely to get infected) no more than 4 weeks apart, with a further booster doses every 3 years. In some countries this schedule is mandated by law. Yes, the UK’s covid vaccination policy for dogs is better than the one for NHS staff!

Now you might well say, but 50% is better than nothing. Yes, in an ideal world populated entirely by sensible people. However, there is a risk of luring people into a false sense of security. I’ve long noticed a tendency of older people to not follow the quarantine rules properly (e.g. nose sticking out of their mask, if they are actually wearing one of course), well give them the vaccine and tell them they are cured and what do you think they’ll do? Socially distance? LOL! In fact quite a number have been trying to book foreign holidays!

Also, the point of vaccination does introduce a small risk of infection, as you are bringing lots of people together in one place (its still worthwhile vaccinating people, but we have to acknowledge the risk v’s reward trade off, a tiny risk for a ten fold increase in protection). Case in point, I’ve heard from my relatives of a care home in Ireland which has managed to get through this crisis without a single case of covid….until a few weeks ago…after the vaccines were administered (it could just be a cruel coincidence, or it could be that somehow the virus slipped in with one of those administering it).

This is the problem with the Boris Johnson ‘s government, they are more interested in looking good for the cameras than actually dealing with problems. Their brexit policy amounts to hiding the problems and telling UK companies to get around the brexit red tape by moving to the EU (British jobs….for EU workers! and brexit was supposedly justified on removing red tape!).

Last week Boris ran up to Scotland, in violation of Covid rules in order to elbow his way into a photo op regarding a new Scottish made vaccine, before anyone Scottish could take credit for it. He then complained (with no hint of irony) about how a 2nd indy ref won’t be fair as people won’t know what they are voting for. If I was to go back in time and write a work of fiction about Boris and the Tories it would be rejected as too outlandish to be believable.

But this has been the problem with him from the start. He’s not a details person, but a pathological liar and that can be very dangerous. I had a boss like him once, also a public school boy, and his management style could be described as a mix between seagull manager (comes in, makes lots of noise, craps on everything and then leaves) and Monty python’s black knight (as in he doesn’t give up even when its clear he’s lost). He’d propose policy A, “consult” with the staff (in much the way Kim Jung-un “consults” with his people), we’d tell him it can’t work because of X, Y and Z. He’d conclude A was a great idea and instruct us to implement it. We’d point out that’s impossible (again because of X, Y and Z). He’d still insist and demote or remove anyone who refused to go ahead with it. Then when it failed, blame others for why he was never told about X, Y and Z. Rinse and repeat.

My guess is that Boris and his cabinet are much the same. They got it into their heads that the vaccine is some sort of silver bullet solution to the crisis, which its not. Its another tool that can be used to slow the spread of infection. Nothing more, nothing less. Its worth remembering vaccination doesn’t grant permanent immunity, it only works for about 6-12 months in all probability and new strains will emerge which the vaccine doesn’t work against (this is why you have to get a flu shot once a year).

We will still have to deal with Covid years from now, but having a vaccine, combined with a strong health service (which the Tories want to sell off) and an effective track and trace system (which we still don’t have in the UK) means outbreaks will be easier to control. It will just be like any other disease we have to cope with outbreaks of from time to time (the flu, west Nile virus, cholera, etc.). Although that said, given that it can easily spread from country to country there is little to be gained by one country (or the west) hoarding the vaccines and leaving large parts of the world un-vaccinated. This just guarantees further outbreaks and pandemics of covid into the future.

So there is a real danger that the vaccine will be squandered. Which will have pretty serious implications. There’s already a whole host of “plandemic” conspiracy theories going around, as well as anti-vacciers and inevitably if they start to hear cases of people who got the vaccine (i.e. only the one dose that’s not really effective) who then got sick and I think you can see where this could end up going.

To paraphrase a saying, when you prioritise good PR over reality you accrue a debt to the truth. Sooner or later that debt must be repaid.

2020 a year in review

I think if 2020 had a tag line it would have to be something along the lines of “…but then it got worse“. We shall have to hope things get better in 2021…although it ain’t looking great initially.

Plague Island

So the brexiters are now raging that the French, Dutch, Irish, et al have used their right as sovereign nations to close their borders (I thought you can’t do that if you are in the EU?)…in one direction…for a two days (supplies could still get into the UK, they just couldn’t leave by truck, unless the driver was tested). Or in other words a partial no deal brexit (but without tariffs or any checks). Surely the Brexiters should be celebrating, we’ll be riding around on unicorns and reaping the benefits of brexit a few weeks early.

Of course this new lockdown is largely the fault of the Tory government and its incompetent handling of covid. Their failure to get a handle on the crisis provided the virus with the breeding ground to mutate. They were warned that this new strain was circulated as early as the 14th of December (this is when a statement on the matter was first made, likely they knew about it sometime before then), yet they still planned to ignore medical advice and remove all lockdown rules for Christmas. Its not really a huge surprise European governments reacted as they did when they know the Bullingdon clown is in charge over here on plague Island.

And now medical experts are pleading for an extension to the brexit transition period, which if course is also being ignored, because, they’ve been ignoring the experts all along and look where that’s got them – 80,000 dead and counting. Plus, a brexit deal where the UK has conceded virtually everything (as has been the case with most of the trade deals the UK has struck, which generally leaves the UK worse off and a rule taker not a rule maker), oh and we’ve overpaid for the Covid vaccine because, surprise, surprise the EU can get it cheaper than we can (bulk discounts).

Something fishy going on

At least I suppose the French lockdown of the border has highlighted how dependant the UK is on trade with the EU. And how crucial it is that some sort of comprehensive deal is eventually put in place. Consider than on January the 1st it will be illegal for a truck driver to even carry a ham and cheese sandwich across the border without the necessary paperwork. And if that sounds overly bureaucratic, actually no, that’s quite normal at most international border crossings, where they often don’t allow the transfer of fruits or vegetables (e.g. the US allows travellers to bring cheeses across but not meats, tinned food, rice, fruits or vegetables). Some countries even have sniffer dogs to check passengers for any undeclared food items.

And oddly enough, given all the talk about fish, its UK fish products going into the EU that are on very short time scales and most vulnerable to tariffs. Several such companies in Scotland said they will have to likely send their lorries to a dump than wait for the Calais crossing to reopen. Keep in mind that any deal struck in the short term (and a skinny deal seems likely) will not include free trade of all goods and services, as well as equivalent standards, meaning checks are going to have to be carried out in 2021. It would require membership of the EU free trade area to eliminate the need for any checks at the border (and that would take several years to negotiate, not least because it would involve non-EU nations such as Norway and Iceland).

Post-brexit, trade of some products could simply be rendered uneconomic. Delaying delivery of fresh produce by even a single day means its going to be less attractive to wholesalers (who wants to buy two day old fish when freshly caught stuff is available) and some portion will have gone off by the time it arrives. Which on top of the tariffs (plus the fact the driver might not be able to do the run without going over his hours and having to stop) and the cost of filling in all of that paperwork, means its going to be much more expensive and there just won’t be as much available.  

So what’s the point in a no deal? Or a skinny deal? Its going to cost the country a fortune, far more than the UK has ever paid to the EU. All just to gain control of fishing rights (an industry worth 0.1% of GDP), which isn’t even going to benefit the fishing industry much, as it just means you can’t export your fish and end up bankrupting the fishing industry. And in all likelihood the French fishermen will blockade French ferry ports and gum up the works completely in January.

In any event, the problems with fishing are within the UK’s control and they always have been, to quote a section from a recent Guardian article:

But the greater injustice by far to our fishers is our own government’s allocation of quotas to large companies. Two-thirds of the UK’s quota of fish goes to just three multinationals ; boats under 10m long get just 4% though they account for 77% of fishers . A Greenpeace report found a quarter of Britain’s quota was owned by five families , all in the Sunday Times rich list…

….British “slipper skippers were allowed to put their feet up and live off the earnings from selling their quota to foreign companies. If concern for our small boat fishing fleet were really the impediment to a vital Brexit deal, the government should be getting tough on preventing this sell-off.

Panic buying…again!

Looks like I’m stuck at home for Christmas, I’m in self imposed isolation as I have a bit of cold (which I’m pretty sure now is just a cold, but better safe than sorry). I’ve gone a modest stockpile of food, as I planned ahead, just in case of something like this happening (I even have some Turkey!). But I’m guessing that there are hordes of people rushing off to panic buy loo roll and spaghetti again, because presumably they are planning to eat so much Spaghetti for Christmas dinner they worry they might sh*t themselves (jingle tills, jingle tills, panic all the way, oh what fun it is to fight in the aisles and dump stuff in my trolley sleight…I’ll stop now!).

I’ve discussed the issue of stockpiling for general emergencies (such as this) or for brexit before. And suffice to say, if you are rushing off to the supermarket now, you’ve left it way too late. Buying pasta and far more fresh food than you can ever hope to eat before it goes off is not only stupid but pretty selfish.

The solution is to treat it as an inventory management problem. Rather than assuming the supermarket will always have what you want at a reasonable price, have a small floating stock of the stuff you normally eat. That way you don’t have to panic buy and if you get stuck unexpectedly inside (as I am), it doesn’t matter you’ll have enough to cope (as is my situation right now..might you, I might run out of Irish whiskey and have to settle for only the Scottish stuff, but times are tough!).

But like I said this is going to be the problem with brexit after January, fresh food supplies will not be as reliable anymore, they will become more sporadic (one day they’ll be out of peppers, next day loads of them but no tomatoes) and prices will go up. There are alternatives, some fruit and veg are grown in the UK (just not nearly enough to go around, plus have you ever tasted English wine!). There is the option of tinned food or frozen vegetables, although they obviously aren’t as good as the fresh stuff (and frozen veg takes up room I your freezer which is not a forever machine).

How then do the supermarkets stop panic buying? Well I’d limit purchases to a maximum of 2 of any item and a maximum of 12 items total per person for a few weeks (anyone showing up at the tills with 13 items, gets refused service and told to come back tomorrow). There is as much a psychological aspect to the panic buying and its about curbing that behaviour. Cutting the number of items on sale (i.e. one or two brands of soap rather than a dozen) and make sure there is plenty of those items on the shelves (perhaps even closing until they can ensure this). If people see empty shelves one day, then some small number of items the next, the selfish ones will try to clean them out.

Who should be vaccinated first?

Is it just me, but I’ve noticed that those who are in the younger generation tend to be taking this whole crisis a bit more seriously, even thought they are less vulnerable to the disease. By contrast, it seems to be the baby boomers and the older generations who are throwing caution to the win, insisting on seeing family at Christmas, not wearing masks, or having their noses poking out of masks (I’m tempted to get a big dog and train him to bite any exposed noses he sees).

Which brings us to the issue of who should be vaccinated first. Well clearly health workers and those with vulnerable conditions yes. But after that the UK’s plan is to go largely by age. Which you could argue makes sense given they are more likely to die from the disease (and their aforementioned habit of ignoring the rules). But I’d argue that might not be the best solution.

It ignores the fact that certain ethnic groups are more vulnerable to covid. It will take over a year to vaccinate everybody and by then some may have lost their immunity (as the antibodies won’t linger forever) or a new strain may have emerged that the vaccine isn’t effective against. Instead, I’d argue in favour of ring fenced vaccinations around possible super-spreader events.

So that would mean prioritising vaccinations in schools, universities, hospitality employees, shopping staff,etc. This would limit the room for the virus to spread. It could still spread (as not everyone would be vaccinated), but much more slowly, giving more time for more people to get vaccinated and more time to develop new vaccines for emerging strains.

But inevitably, given that baby boomers actually bother to show up to the polls and vote, they will get vaccinated first. And lets be clear, that’s the main reason why its going by age. If young people have a problem with that, start voting and being political active, otherwise you can’t complain about being ignored and put at the back of the queue for everything.

UK is now a Chumocracy

Nigel Farage, when not shouting at the sea or founding far right political parties (anti lockdown or whatever is the flavour of the month), has also been involved recently in some dodgy scams. Given he can’t mooch off the EU anymore (well more precisely off European tax payer’s, remember that UK citizens paid for his lavish spending as well via their taxes) he’s clearly trying his hand at some grifting, given he knows there’s millions of brexiters who are as thick as mince and will believe anything he says.

Earlier this year he was promoting the sale of gold and silver as well as shilling for crypto, which would only make sense if you think the UK economy is going to so completely collapse after brexit and that the pound would become worthless (so not exactly on message here). However he’s now been appearing in internet adverts promoting a fairly dodgy sounding investment advice scam, not unlike the contrepreneur scams I mentioned in a prior post. Yes the person who is most responsible for brexit is a dodgy scam artist, so why are we we going ahead with brexit?

Well largely because of how the media in the UK works. Very little of what I’ve said above is being reported in the mainstream media. For much the same reasons they were slow to report on his extra marital affairs, nor that he applied for a German passport straight after the referendum.

By contrast anyone on the left makes the slightest mistake, they will do a 20 page exclusive and go on about it for weeks. But a right wing politician can be openly scamming people, or the Tories handing out billions in no bid contracts to their chums and it doesn’t get reported. In short, Brexit Britain is not a democracy, but a Chumocracy. And we have the nerve to call other countries corrupt.

Covid and its impact on elections

Equally, anyone thinking covid and the mess that’s to follow in January will derail the Tories (or Farage) think again. The media will develop a goldfish like memory of everything that’s happened this year. They will point to the growth in the economy (its likely by 2024, we’ll be into some sort of recovery, they’ll just highlight the growth, ignoring how much better it would have otherwise been without brexit or a better covid response). They’ll also play the race card of course (ignoring the fact that if there is a problem then now that’s entirely on them).

While labour stands a better chance now they’ve got a credible leader in charge, they are not guaranteed to win. This is why the ridiculous infighting now going on between the Corbyn brigade and Starmer needs to stop. The recent US election shows why. Biden only scraped in, despite the fact Trump is on course to have killed more American’s than the axis forces managed in WW2 (the US death toll is now 3000 per day, that’s a 9/11 or a pearl harbour every single day)…and he still got 47% of the vote.

The one major change will be a level of Darwinian evolution. In that more of the baby boomers and Trumpers will have joined anti-mask protests, got covid and died and thus will be unable to vote in 2024. And some will also die from natural causes between now and then given their more advanced age. Its this demographic shift that is going to be the killer for the right long term, hence why they are trying to pack the Supreme court or make brexit as difficult as possible to reverse.

It might not happen in 2024, but when it does happen, the left needs to keep their powder dry. As I’ve discussed before, I would not spare the rod once the boot is firmly on the other foot. The way to beat the right is to fight fire with fire.

Pardon my war crimes

Trump is going on a pardoning spree of his political allies and basically any yahoo who has vaguely right wing views, such as 4 security contractors who were convicted of war crimes in Iraq. This highlights why letting Trump go unpunished would be a huge mistake. This has to be grounds for charging him with abuse of power and obstruction of justice.

There’s also a very simple way to also nip this in the bud. Make it clear that anyone pardoned by Trump will be handed over for trial overseas. So these contractors will be shipped off to Iraq (after perhaps getting reassurances that they won’t be executed, just imprisoned for life). There are precedence’s where by an international court could try Trump and his allies in the Hague (which will be beyond the justification of any US presidential pardoning or Republican interference).

So he’ll simply be digging him and his allies into even deeper hot water by pardoning them. Which means people will quickly stop requesting pardons from him, or even start insulting him on twitter to make sure they don’t get pardoned!

Going out with a bang

So 2020 has been all round bad, but has it really been that bad? I mean its not like we’ve had anything really bad happen like a tsunami or a large volcano going off….well A) yes we have, Kilauea just erupted in Hawaii and B) there’s still several days to go, don’t tempt fate!

The one thing the Tories are getting right

So we are now warned that Covid is out of control in the UK, cases are at over 4000 a day (higher than before the last lockdown) and could rise to 50,000 a day by next month if nothing is done. And this against the backdrop of a failed track and trace scheme and a Tory government that reopened too quickly and squandered the lockdown.

And what exactly are the Tories going to do, another lockdown? Ya and I’ll just claim I’m driving to Bernard’s castle to test my eyesight (researchers are now calling it “the Cummings effect“, which likely has played a role in this uptick of cases). Or I’ll say I’m going grouse hunting (no joke they exempted grouse hunting from local lockdowns), so I just need to go around with a shovel or a spear (you don’t have to be good at grouse hunting to claim you are doing it!).

And let’s be clear Cummings did that runner to the Durham because he could see Covid cases going crazy in London and he knew all too well how badly he and the Tories had run down the NHS. He didn’t fancy dying on a dirty hospital floor in a pool of his own piss, as happened to quite a few of his fellow brexiters thanks to his actions (and let’s be clear, if you voted Tory, that is what you voted for).

And on the brexit front, we’ve been warned they’ve left it way too late to impose any sort of border controls. And that’s during normal times, it doesn’t account for this Covid effect. I mean they’ve harping on about their brexit fantasy for several decades and they can’t even get this one right! The term couldn’t organise a piss up in a brewery springs to mind.

However there is one thing they are getting right, helping their friends line their pockets. Covid contracts have been handed out to Tory donors with no bidding. This has seen firms who don’t make PPE getting contracts to supply PPE or accounting firms getting medical testing contracts. And just recently the Japanese firm Fujitisu received a very lucrative contract to develop post-brexit IT systems, which is makes the Japanese willingness to go ahead with this trade deal a bit clearer (my guess is they were promised they’d get their share of the cake).

And last week failing Grayling got himself a P/T job, which will earn him £100,000 a year (for one day’s work a week) to advise a port authority…this is the same guy who cost the Government billions due to his bungling incompetence, including giving £50 million to a ferry company that didn’t actually own any ferries.

And finally, the thing I’d long predicted would happen has happened – a euroskeptic has declared brexit to be an EU plot (I expect this will be the Daily Mail’s line next year as soon as everything’s gone to pot).

So the Tories are getting one thing right, they are looking after their own. And I suppose they know how thick most Tory voters are, so they probably assume (not unreasonably) that they can just con them into voting Tory again in a few years time. After all, if you are that big a mug to believe them last election, you can be just as easily conned next time.

Brexit Britain: “worldbeating” for all the wrong reasons

One phrase you keep on hearing from brexiters is worldbeating. They want their Empire 2.0 to reflect the warped vision of British exceptionalism beaten into them back in public school. And at least in some respects they are succeeding. The UK is now “worldbeating” for all of the wrong reasons.

Firstly its now official, the UK is one of the worst effected by Covid. While we can argue a bit about the figures (its likely some less developed countries are showing artificially lower figures due to less effective testing, or in some cases government manipulation of figures, something Trump is attempting in the US). But certainly in terms of countries where some level of testing is ongoing, England has the highest death rate in Europe and the UK is the 2nd worst in the world for per capita excess deaths. And its worth noting there is still some disparity within the UK as to the death rate from Covid in care homes (oddly enough while other countries are trying to get an accurate measure of these figures, the UK government seems to be trying to actively avoid such awkward questions).

Interestingly, while Scotland’s death rate is high by European standards (then again its part of the UK and subject to the same policies from Westminster), it is still lower than in England, vindicating the SNP’s decision to adopt their own approach independent of London in how they dealt with Covid.

So while the bungling incompetence of Boris Johnson & the PM…sorry “special adviser” Cummings has to be part of the problem, clearly the massive Tory cuts to healthcare is the main reason behind this “worldbeating” death rate. And no, before anyone says it, oh every government has failed to invest properly in healthcare (that’s just a coping mechanism for Tory voters trying to allay their guilty conscience). Every year that labour had control of the NHS budget it went up in excess of inflation. Every year the Tories were in charge it has gone down. Its that simple, they didn’t invest in healthcare and people died. When you voted for them, you voted to kill people.

The Tories response of course, rather than learning the error of their ways and reversing past policies, has been to double down, they’ve handed out contracts for testing or the prevision of PPE or ventilators to their chums and cronies, often without any proper tendering process and to companies who have no experience in that field (e.g. they handed medical testing contracts to an accountancy firm and the manufacture of ventilators to a manufacturer of diggers). And just in case you hadn’t guessed it, yes the key thing uniting all of these companies wasn’t their suitability to do the job, it was their donations to the Tory party (or that senior Tories sit on the board or work for them).

We were also promised a “worldbeating” contact and trace app…which didn’t work and drained people’s phone batteries thanks to all the spyware Cummings minions had installed on them. So while most EU states now have a working app and a contact tracing service to go with it, the UK has no app and a tracing service (predictably run by a Tory donor awarded under a no bid contract) that is in chaos. Of course the one benefit of using private firms linked to Tory donors, is that they will keep information private, allowing the government to cover up the extend of the crisis to the detriment of being able to deal effectively with it (hence why we’ve seen new local lockdowns spring up with no advance warning).

And we were told last election that you can’t vote for Corbyn, why he’ll nationalise everything and destroy the country. Well a recent report from the ONS has said that the UK’s railways have now been effectively nationalised by the Tories, to the point where things such as the debts held by the private firms running the railway’s should technically count as part of the UK government debt (and rail employees counted as civil servants in all but name).

The only difference is, that labour’s policy would have given the government more control over the service. Hence they could look at making improvements to the service or lowering ticket prices (which are completely out of control, seriously I had to buy a train ticket recently and it was only barely cheaper than renting a car). All in all the UK’s rail service offers some of the poorest value for money in the world (as a someone who has travelled in trains around the world, UK trains are the most expensive and offer a very poor quality of service). So another “worldbeating” success then.

British Trains are not only the most expensive in Europe, but some of the least reliable

And speaking of Corbyn, the tabloids were quick to drum up fear of his chums among the hard left “old guard” of the labour party during the election. And who do we see being nominated for the house of lords by Johnson? But hard left labour leavers such as Kate Hoey, Gisela Stuart, Frank Field and many others, such as Claire Fox (a member of the Revolutionary Communist party). They are allies of Corbyn, and while they were critical of him, that was because he didn’t back brexit more firmly (in a party that overwhelmingly supports remain) and they felt he took the whole Antisemitism thing too seriously (yes really!)….and these are the sort of people who Johnson, a Tory PM, who ran on an anti-Corbyn platform, wants as members of the house of lords. Go figure.

I’d further note that this more or less confirms what I’d long thought, that many of these labour MP’s were such hard core brexiters that they effectively sold out and betrayed their left wing principles, for which they are now being rewarded. There were efforts within labour to forge a middle ground (respect the referendum, campaign on the promise to negotiate a deal with Brussels, then put it to the people with remain or no deal as alternative options). However, these MP’s fought this process every step of the way. Even when Corbyn (who is also a brexiter of course) was cornered at conference and forced to adopt this compromise policy, this cabal of leavers persuaded him to not fully commit to it, which was one of the factors why labour lost the election (as neither remainers or leavers trusted labour on brexit anymore).

They also used their votes in parliament strategically to ensure labour lost several key votes (which of course Corbyn didn’t punish them for), even going against their own constituents (several represent strongly remain voting areas). Like I said, this can’t have been a coincidence. They were clearly working with the Tories and now they are collecting their twenty pieces of sliver. The only reason why Len McCluskey or Corbyn himself aren’t becoming lords as well is because even Daily Mail readers would smell a rat.

And speaking of which, Len McClusterfu*k is busy trying to undermine the labour party, by threatening to cut of funding (because settling out of court an anti-Semitism case might hurt Corbyn’s feelings…so better to destroy the party in order to save it).

And these labour Judases were not alone, a whole bunch of other people got peerages, including a Russian Oligarch linked to Putin (the son of a KGB agent no less). And this is on the back of the Russia report, which showed how Russian oligarchs and the Kremlin had undue influence on the UK. And the Tory response…make em lords of the land! Meanwhile John Bercow becomes one of the few speakers in history not to get a peerage.

Johnson with his mate (and now a lord) a Russian Oligarch friend…that’s taking control…if you are Putin that is!

But we are supposed to get a “world beating” set of trade deals….you mean like the ones we had while within the EU, with not just the EU and EEA nations but 50 nations other around the world. While it is true that trade talks between the EU and other nations (such as the US) have failed, that’s generally been because the EU negotiators concluded that such deals would be too detrimental to outweight the benefits (there is is certain give and take with trade deals). The same applies to the UK. You can have a trade deal…if you don’t mind making a lot of farmers unemployed. And you are prepared to lower your food safety standards or privatise the NHS.

And who is behind the UK’s trade policy? Another drinking buddy of Dominc Cummings & Michael Gove, who is seen as a “snake oil Merchant”, even by fellow leavers. And in Kent the local MP’s (who voted for brexit) are complaining about the plans to build several massive lorry parks to hold all the trucks queuing up after January. They want their no deal brexit…but only if everything stays exactly the same!

I’ve heard it asked whether Boris & co are pretending to be mad in the hope of getting a trade deal from the EU, or are they actually mad. I’d argue, neither is true, they are just corrupt. They know that their backers and donors can profit from a no deal (its called disaster capitalism) and they can blame everything on covid, the EU and migrants/poor people.

I previously compared the Tory government to Brazil’s operation carwash. In truth that is insulting to Brazil’s most corrupt politicians. They are no where near as bad as the Tories, who aren’t even bothering to try and hide their contempt for the people (there’s a Tory MP arrested for rape who is not even been suspended from the party). Yet what”s the bet many of the racist mugs who voted Tory last election will do so again next election. That is brexit Britain for you, a “worldbeating” kleptocracy.

Is it just me, but when Tories say “worldbeating” they mean sh*t. If so, if you’ll excuse me, I’ve got to go to the bathroom, I have some “worldbeating” business to take care of.

The Americanisation of UK politics

Some of the UK government policies in recent weeks have seemed baffling. Not just the usual cronyism (with Cummings drinking buddies getting lucrative no-bid contracts for stuff they aren’t qualified to do) and incompetence….and that’s before we even consider the Russia report. (recall that Cummings who led the brexit campaign also worked in Russia for several years). But we also have out of touch policies, such as stamp duty cuts (great news for anyone who can afford a house, not much use to someone who can’t pay the rent). Or vouchers to middle class people so they can go to dine out.

Think about that, we have thousands of people dependant on food banks, people dying after their benefits were withdrawn, an NHS in crisis (but don’t worry it will all be over by Christmas!), essential workers struggling to make rent, and the government’s response is to spend millions so that people who can afford to eat out, can have that experience subsidised (they also seem to forget that what the Scots & Irish will do is take the voucher to a gastro-pub, order a bowl of chips and then drink the rest of the money, so basically they are handing out porter vouchers!).

Or we have the other obvious contradiction where they are going to sign a US trade deal which allows low-quality US food to be sold in the UK, but not lower the UK’s farming standards. This means that the middle and upper classes will still be able to get their farm fresh organic food, for a higher price mind, while its poor people (or those dependant on food banks) who’ll be forced to eat the GMO modified, chlorine washed American food.

This unfortunately is the shape of things to come, for we are seeing the Americanisation of UK politics. Which was in fact what the last election was really about (if you voted Tory last election ,well this is what you voted for,, its a little late to complain). For those unfamiliar with American politics if America had a tagline it would be along the lines of “if you are poor, you can fu*k off”. Its not just minorities who are discriminated against in the US, its poor people in general. The US government frequently brings in policies that subsidise middle class lifestyles at the expense of those on low incomes.

So for example the entire healthcare system in the US is an absolute mess. The US government spends more money per capita subsidising its private healthcare, than some European nations spend on their entire healthcare system (which covers everybody). And the US citizens have to chip in thousands each of their own money on top of this. Meanwhile there are millions of American’s left without any healthcare cover.

America spends almost as much public money subsidising its private healthcare system (which doesn’t provide universal cover) as other countries spend on their entire healthcare system (which does cover everybody)

The US government subsidises car based lifestyles rather than investing in public transport, even thought the latter would be better for cities (or those on a low income) and produce less carbon emissions. And, as I’ve discussed before the US policies towards climate change amount to spending billions to defend the properties owned by the wealthy, even if it diverts the floodwater downstream and floods out a load of working class people.

Hell even America’s military policy has an element of this. Defence company’s are owned by wealthy donors to the major parties. Much of the staff in these firms are well paid middle class professionals. The only losers are the poor working class saps who have to go fight in the foreign wars and deal with the mental and physical scars afterwards.

The reasons behind these policies are quite easy to understand when you look at things through the eyes of a cynical Washington insider. US elections are bankrolled by the rich. And its the rich and the middle class who effectively decide the outcome of all elections. The poor, frequently don’t vote (indeed they are discouraged from voting) and even those who do vote often vote against their own interests.

If you are white, wealthy well educated or a boomer you are far more likely to vote in US elections

Like much of America, many in the working class are socially conservative, but lean to the left politically. It is a myth that low income Americans put Trump in the White house (hence why he doesn’t mind tens of millions of people getting evicted, if this prevents them from voting, it could be his best shot at re-election). In truth Hilary won the popular vote among low income voters, although a significant minority did vote for Trump for ideological reasons. By contrast higher income voters were more likely to vote for Trump the wealthier they were, presumably because they knew he’d screw over poor people and give the well off a tax cut.

While low income voters voted heavily for Obama (one of the few recent US president’s whose actually given half a crap about the poor) but they then crippled his administration by backing republican congressmen and governors. This is the problem, low income Americans aren’t a consistent voting block. Yet lawmakers know there are large blocks of voters in the middle to upper income level who will vote for them if they back certain policies (e.g. tax cuts, middle class subsidies). And they will also vote against any politicians if they propose certain policies (e.g. tax increases, increased social welfare spending or anything that stinks of changing the status quo).

As far as US politicians are concerned its a case of mind over matter. They don’t mind if the working class gets screwed because politically, they don’t matter. And this also explains why the Bernie or bust brigade are never going to get anywhere. Firstly, there is no way they’d ever get the nomination. Even if they got the nomination there’s large blocks of people who will come out of the woodwork to make damn sure they will never win. And even if they won, their opponents will just filibuster everything or use the Supreme court to run down the clock.

This is not to say the situation is hopeless. Obama did managed to sneak through a few progressive policies, most notably Obamacare. But it frequently means watering down those policies to get something that will pass (and which will be difficult to repeal as soon as the other side is back in power). It also requires playing the long game, relying on keeping someone vaguely leftwing in power to continue the legacy and gradually chip away. Yes Hilary and Biden are fairly right wing (they are to the right of many centre right parties in Europe), but they ain’t going to repeal Obamacare and they could probably be pushed (by a suitable band of left leaning democrats) to extend its provisions to ensure universal coverage. Not a single payer system granted, but an important step in that direction. Hence why it was so foolish for the Bernie or bust brigade to vote against Hilary in 2016.

But either way, we are now seeing the same sorts of politics play out here in the UK. The working class towns who voted Tory because of brexit are likely to be the ones most severely effected by it, as well as the upcoming Covid related depression. And inevitably when the next Tory wave of austerity hits, the Tories aren’t going to take money posh people in the home counties (where most of them live). No they will screw over the poor up north. Sure they’ll make positive noises, stick a lick of paint on a hospital and claim it a new build, replace infrastructure (using private finance) that should have been fixed years ago. Their media allies will play their role in hiding everything. And ultimately they know that half of the public are mugs who will still vote Tory again after the play the race card.

Now I could be wrong, the Tories might have miscalculated. We should get a good indication in next year’s local elections. If labour wins convincingly, then the Tories are in trouble. Doubly so if labour runs on a fairly left wing platform. But if labour only returns to its pre-Corbyn levels of support, then labour are in trouble. They will likely have to play the same game as the democrats and start shuffling over to the right in order to have any chance of winning.

There is of course one similarity between the UK and USA. They both use a decidedly unfair system of voting known as First Past the Post (FptP), which creates this two party system. Hence voters are forced to choose between Tweedledum or Tweedledee, with many MP’s or congress members who are so safe they cannot be unseated, no matter how badly they screw up. By contrast many European states work on the system of Proportional Representation. This allows smaller parties to break the two party duopoly, as it means individual MP’s can be more easily unseated if they piss off their constituents.

This means parties can’t simply abandon a large block of voters, not unless they want to catch a whole pile of political blowback. For example, I discussed before the differences between how Germany phased out its deep pit coal mines (with not one involuntary redundancy) as compared to the US and UK (after a suitable foto-op, miners have pretty much been thrown to the wolves). The Germans did this because no party could afford to piss off that many voters, as it could make all the difference in an election. By contrast West Virginia or North Dakota (two key coal mining states) are pretty solidly republican.

So if there’s any single policy that the left or the centrists should be uniting behind, its reforming the voting system in both the UK and US. Such an unequal voting system inevitably leads to massive inequality, corruption and the squandering of taxpayers money.

Covid news roundup

The room where I hid

So the big news of the last week is the book out by Papa smurf who broke bad John Bolton, that makes various allegations about the abuse of power and incompetence in the Trump white house. It appears to verify the claims regarding the Ukraine scandal as well as the Mueller report. The book suggests Trump tried to do a deal with China just to get re-elected, and discusses his vulnerability to pressure from Putin (plus his closeness to dictators around the world). The book portrays a Trump white house that is so dysfunctional they’ve essentially abandoned routines such as the daily intelligence briefings (as Trump would spend most of the meeting talking about himself).

Of course given that the book also reveals that Trump is so dumb he thought Finland was part of Russia and didn’t realise that the UK has nuclear weapons, it is no wonder they’ve given up. And ultimately the book confirms that Trump is placing his own personal business interests ahead of those of the country, even in the middle of pandemic.

Now the White house will claim its all the lies of a disgruntled former staffer. And Bolton (a war hawk prominent during GW Bush and the Iraq war) can hardly be considered a reliable witness. However, there seems to be an awful lot of disgruntled Trump staffers right now coming out with tell all books. And their stories are confirmed by what we do know does go on in the white house from FOI requests (such as the fact much of Trump’s diary is blank “executive time” where he sits around raging on twitter).

Quite simply put, even if the book was fiction, the very fact many are willing to believe it should tell you everything you need to know about the chaos in the white house. Bottom line, back in 2016 the US voted to not have a president for a few years, but instead let some racist swampy don sit in the white house and pretend to be president, while looting the US treasury.

And the democrats are furious because of the fact Bolton chose not to testify against Trump at his impeachment before the senate, saving it all for his book. Had he said under oath what’s in this book, it would have been very hard for the GOP to let Trump off without any consequences. Which should tell you why he didn’t testify. The Republicans know full well how dirty and dysfunctional Trump’s white house is. So likely there was a deal done, he doesn’t testify, but gets to publish his book (a bit of kicking and screaming from Trump not withstanding) and no doubt he’ll get back into power and some point next time they get back in (or he’ll get some cushy job as an adviser).

Out of control

Meanwhile, the cases of Covid in the US have begun to surge upwards. Last time I checked its up to nearly 40k a day, not far off its previous peak back in April. It could be a 2nd wave, although Antony Fauci reckons its just a continuation of the first wave. But with numerous super-spreading events (political rallies, demonstrations, etc.) this is hardly surprising. What it shows is that the virus isn’t under control and the US squandered the lockdown.

The whole point of a lockdown was to flatten the curve and give countries the time to covid-proof their economies. This is what China, Japan, Korea or Germany succeeded in doing. So even if this is just a dead cat bounce, it indicates that the US hasn’t gotten the virus under control. Hence if and when a 2nd wave happens it will burn through the US unchecked. In effect Trump has taken $2 trillion dollars and squandered every penny. He may as well have spent it on his precious wall for all the good it would have done. Yes you could try another lock down, but will people obey it? And that means another $2 trillion in costs. Can the US afford that?

Trump might get his wish, a wall around the country, but one to keep Americans in rather than foreigners out. Already the EU is considering banning travel from the US due to its failure to get the coronavirus under control.

The hypocrisy of the right

Consider that the current US death toll from Covid stands at over 120,000. That’s more than have been killed in every war the US has fought since the end of World War 2. And a large number of those causalities are directly down to the inaction and incompetence of Trump. The only thing I find surprising is that he’s only 9 points behind. Then again, US politics is now completely tribal. At least 40% of the country are committed followers of the cult of Trump. Its their new religion and he can do no wrong.

A Trump death clock showed up outside his rally in Tulsa

Consider that Hilary’s worse crime was Benghazi (which she had nothing to do with and was in no way responsible for) which saw 4 people killed, sending the right wing media into an 8 year tizzy, even to the point of making a Michael Bay action movie about it. But Trump gets 120,000 people killed, and silence. This is the hypocrisy of the right.

So for example, a largely peaceful BLM protest in London, during which ONE out of tens thousands tried (but failed) to set fire to the UK flag on the Cenotaph, is apparently the worst crime in history (and should carry a sentence longer than you’d get for rape or violent assault), which to the right wing media, turned the whole march into a riot. Yet a few days later a bunch of neo-nazi’s fighting with police is instead branded “a scuffle”. And when one of the skinheads decides to urinate on a memorial, well when you’ve got to go, you’ve got to go. The mental gymnastics Tory voters brains must go through, its a wonder it doesn’t make them dizzy.

The biggest losers

Meanwhile in brexitland, if Trump does lose in 2020, the biggest loser will likely be the UK. It is very unlikely a trade deal could be signed off and ratified by Congress before the election. As I’ve noted before any deal that screws over Ireland will be politically unacceptable to the Irish American community.

And frankly only a complete moron would negotiate a deal under the present circumstances. Just look at the situation with the proposed Japan trade deal, where the UK has essentially been given 6 weeks to sign one or else piss off. The much heralded CANZUK deal will have zero benefits, might actually leave the country worse off and require the opening up of the UK’s borders to immigration. Which might be just as well, because without more farm workers much of the UK’s harvest for this year will be left to rot in fields.

And while the government claims there will be no border checks, certainly not in NI, actually they’ve quietly sent out letters to the relevant port authorities advising them to start setting up customs posts. Of course they’ve left it way too late, in fact one report seen by Bloomberg suggests they seem to have forgotten about these big things called “trucks” which go through UK ports rather often.

And this is just for openers. If Trump loses, then being such a close ally to him will put the UK at a distinct disadvantage. Consider that the Tories ignored intelligence warnings about Trump’s closeness to Russia and has hampered efforts by the democrats to investigate him. And there will almost certainly be some sort of congressional investigation into Trump if Biden wins. Trump might even face charges over his lack of action over the Coronavirus. The UK will likely face a US government far more hostile than it has faced at any time since the end of world war 2. The UK will likely be sidelined as the US focuses more on improving its relations with the EU. We will go, as Obama warned, to the back of the queue.

The Summer of Covid

And, much like in the US, with major super spreading events such as the recent crowded beaches, its possible the UK too could also soon see a resurgence in Covid cases. The government, against all scientific advice plans to lift all restrictions on the 4th of July, including scraping the 2m rule. But to be fair, given that since the real prime minster a certain special adviser’s  500 mile jolly with no consequences, the public simply don’t believe the government any more. They’ve lost control of the situation.

Boris asks Brit’s to apply common sense…and everyone goes to the beach!

Again one must contrast the UK’s situation, with 65,000 dead and counting (the worst per capita in the world so far) and the experience of EU countries like Germany. And like I’ve said before, if a 2nd wave does start, this will be far more damaging to the country than a few extra weeks of lockdown. And they will have a window of a few weeks at most to re-impose the lockdown and make sure everyone sticks to it. Which I’m doubtful will be possible.

Meanwhile Scotland and Wales have adopted a different policy towards lockdown, with a more gradual relaxing of measures, even thought the number cases is already much lower per capita than in England. This threatens to undermine the policy of both, not least because it looked like the Tories forgot about Scotland and that they have a different policy.

Naturally this means that if a 2nd wave does happen it could be a lot more destabilising. Johnson could well be making the case for Scottish independence.

Wrong failing sacked

Another story over the last week was the sacking of Rebecca Wrong Failing Long Bailey by Keir Starmer over a tweet she sent regarding an article, which included some anti-Israeli material. Now I thought this was a little harsh, but then again it was an unforced error and she was likely on a yellow card already and under orders not to do anything dumb.

Whether or not the article contained anything anti-Semitic is not the point (it included some unverifiable claims about US police copying Israeli military choke holds). The point is it demonstrated she’s politically inept. Labour now have the Tories on the ropes. Under Corbyn PMQ’s was more like gardener’s question time. He’d ask a question along the lines of “I have a Tim from Sevenoaks who has problems with his NHS services….and his Azaleas”, the PM (either Boris or May) would give some generic canned response that didn’t answer the question “the NHS runs hospitals, Azaleas should be planted in the spring” and rather than follow that up or probe a bit deeper, Corbyn would move on to something about rail services…and Juniper bushes.

Now instead, with Starmer, its like a cross examination in the old bailey. Its been rumoured Johnson is resorting to using an earpiece to communicate with Cummings (aka the real PM) and that doesn’t seem to make much difference. His approval ratings have collapsed and the Tories are tanking in the polls. Its considered only a matter of time before labour pulls ahead.

Naturally, the right wing media are desperate for any angle they can use to attack labour with. And her tweet threatened to give them their old favourite anti-Semitism and pin that on Starmer the way they did Corbyn. I guarantee you, if Starmer hadn’t fired her, the right wing media would have gone on about it for months, or until she resigned. And you can bet Johnson would bring it up in PMQ’s.

In short, it was a massive political error and shows how she’d have made a hopeless labour leader. And the hard left of the party can hardly complain. They picked her as Corbyn’s successor. There were other candidates on the left of the party (such as Angela Rayner, who is so left wing she wants to ban private schools), but they were sidelined. Long Bailey was chosen precisely because she was considered to be weak minded and easily manipulated, much as Corbyn was, by the cabal of toxic advisers around him, such as Len McCluskey, Jon Lansman and Karen Brady.

So no, its not a Blairite plot, actually quite the opposite. Starmer does seem to be taking on board a recent report into labour’s loss which says people do want the sort of change labour stands for, but the problems last election were two fold. Firstly, the public didn’t believe labour could deliver on all its ambitious promises. And secondly they just didn’t like Corbyn and didn’t see him as capable of delivering such change.

Corbyn and the hard left prepare to leave labour and form their own party

So the hard left have a choice, accept this reality, get with the program and get behind the new labour leader. Or go off and found your own party…no doubt called the Judean people’s front, before promptly splitting in multiple smaller factions.

The cult of the Punisher

I came across a video regarding the proliferation of police using the punisher symbol on their uniforms or vehicles. This includes some of the cops engaged in violence against peaceful protesters in recent weeks wearing punisher symbols. For those who don’t read comics, the Punisher (aka Frank Castle) is a vigilante anti-hero who hunts down and kills criminals. Which is hardly the sort of thing cops should be trying to emulate.

Furthermore it could be seen as a neo-nazi coded symbol. In much the same way racists use coded language and dog whistles (which may seem innocence enough to outsiders, but they will know the actually meaning), they are also aware that they can’t go around in nazi uniform or wearing their hoods. So instead they used coded symbols, such as an 88, or a Celtic cross as a substitute for a swastika…or a punisher symbol as a sub for the nazi death’s head symbol.

As a result, in most other countries the cops would at least get a telling off for this, if not a suspension or sacking. The police represent and protect the public trust, and you undermine that when you wear symbols unrepresentative of the values you are supposed to be upholding (such as vigilante justice!). I mean how would conservatives feel of a hard left supporting cop when around with a hammer and sickle on his car, or wearing one of those soviet style bearskin hats. The right wing pundits would likely crack a rib screaming about it.

So its a massive disciplinary issue, yet nothing is being done about. Which should just show you how out of control the US police forces have become. They’ve become a law onto themselves. And you would have hoped they’ve have the self awareness to realise that anyone going around with pictures of skulls on their uniforms means you are probably the baddies.

Boris Sats

We have the makings of yet another Tory tax payers money burning party brewing with the UK government planning to try and buy its own satellite network. Officially this is due to brexit, as the EU are refusing access to their Galileo system. Not true, the UK will enjoy access, as will every other country (much as we currently have access to the US GPS system). The trouble is that the EU (much like the US) will reserve the right to scramble or turn off signals at certain times. Which could impact the UK’s ability to operate its nuclear deterrent.

Initially the Tories were planning to build their own “world beating” system…but given that there is zero chance of that happening, so instead the Tory plan is to buy their way into the proposed OneWeb satellite constellation system. However, this service is in the bargain bin because it went bankrupt.

It did so because its up against competition from the SpaceX and their Starlink system, which is far more advanced. Not to mention the fact that Musk has the means to launch his own rockets rather than buying someone else’s. Then there’s the existing Iridium sat-phone network, which is upgrading its satellites to handle data.

Its probable there is only room for one such network, although its possible Iridium and Starlink could carve out their own independent niches. And its far from proven that satellite based data transfer can be competitive with ground based fibre optic networks. However there is certainly no way two networks such as OneWeb and Starlink could compete against one another….and I think you can guess which one is most likely to fail!

So the Tories are going to have to not only spend a significant amount of money buying and then subsidising this network, but there’s the small detail of how to launch it. The UK lacks the facilities to do this, so they’d have to rely on the either US or EU based rockets. So the Tories are concerned about not having an independent data and navigation system and their solution is to ask the EU and the US to provide one for them, WTF? What could possibly go wrong!

Well aside from the fact that these satellites are intended for data transfers not location information. You can piggy back the relevant signals, or use the data streams to trace locations of users, but that’s not really going to work when it comes to guiding nuclear weapons….unless you are planning to send Putin an email before you launch and hope he stupid enough to open it!

Why does this remind me of Cummings track and trace app (that drained phone batteries due to all the spyware and won’t work on certain types of phones) or the ventilators contracts gifted to Tory donors that turned out to be useless, or the no bid PPE contracts to a Tory donor who doesn’t sell any PPE! Like I said, its another Tory money burning party, a trough of swill for their donors to stick their snouts into and gorge on public money. I hope those who voted Tory are proud to see their taxes well spent.

Gone to the Dogs

And speaking of money burning parties, I mentioned before the story about how a UK minster unlawfully approved of a development on the Isle of Dogs, to the benefit of a Tory party donor, such that he could avoid paying £50 million in taxes to the local council.

Well now, he’s been forced to disclose emails and text messages, which includes an exchange by one of the investors, who just so happens to be Richard Desmond, the former owner of the Express newspaper, and the minster in question. During this exchange they are both fairly matter a fact about what they are doing is certainly dodgy and corrupt.

Plus Desmond does not hide his contempt for the local council referring to them as “the Marxists“ and his strong desire to avoid the payment of taxes. Recall, he used to run one of the UK’s leading newspapers, a strongly Tory paper. Keep in mind there is a rule in UK law saying you need to be a “fit and proper” person to run a newspaper. Does this sound like a fit and proper person? Is Jenrick going to resign? LOL! Ya sure when pigs fly maybe!

The global bike drought

I was considering buying a new mountain bike recently. Long story short, but my current bike is unique, in that there’s something else wrong with it every day. I’ve taken it to bike shops before and they’ve told me that they so much as pumped up the tires I’d be in negative equity. As a trade in, I’d get a slap in the face with a soggy set of bike shorts in exchange for them taking it off my hands.

Now granted, it has its advantages. Notably its never going to get stolen (I once left it for a month chained up outside a Glasgow railway station and nothing happened to it, I’ve previously left in unlocked in public and it was still there when I got back). But I’m probably due a change. Its getting hard to source parts (they just don’t make those oversized front wheels and wee back ones anymore) and mine doesn’t have suspension (so I’m shaking for several minutes after a downhill section).

So I go online and try to place an order and I’m promised my bike will be delivered…in late August….maybe! I try somewhere else, order date will be guaranteed, your bike will arrive….in November! It would seem one of the effects of Covid has been to spark a worldwide bike shortage. This is due to both an increase in demand (as many are now trying to cycle everywhere rather than rely on public transport) at the same time production is down due to Covid restrictions.

So I’m thinking I’ll just have to keep my bike in service. Although I am thinking of getting an out of service, but more modern bike, hopefully with suspension, stripping it down and restoring it to working order.

Why Cummings ain’t going anywhere

So the Tory government has now descended into farce. If we are to take the government at its word, driving 60 miles with suspect eyesight (with a kid in the back) to Barnard’s Castle is an acceptable means to test ones eyesight. In the middle of a press conference last week the health secretary toyed with idea of amending laws as he went along (without any parliamentary approval or judicial review). The law, not to mention scientific advice, is being bent and contorted to save the job of a special adviser.

To say this is dangerous is an understatement. Firstly it amounts to the imposition of arbitrary law, where the laws are written not by parliament but on the fly by ministers, often retroactively to cover themselves and the elites. And the law’s interpretation is now also made by minsters, not courts and judges.

The dangers inherent in this (quite apart from the gagging of the media over this), even for a minor offence, are quite serious. Because, spoiler alert, arbitrary law will typically be interpreted by the wealthy to the benefit of the wealthy (as its basically neo-feudalism), with harsh penalties for the poor and ethic minorities. Hence while Cummings doesn’t even get a slap on the wrist, you have a black person arrested and threatened with tasering for something nowhere near as bad (even thought he was only dropping off food for a relative).

Secondly, the lockdown has now essentially collapsed. The relaxations of the lockdown measures announced are really retroactive to what’s actually happening on the ground. I don’t know about you, but in my neck of the woods, the vast majority have basically given up. I’m seeing families from different households mixing, kids outside playing (with no social distancing), parties, gatherings in large groups, etc. I was in the shop today and I was the only person wearing a mask (even the staff weren’t wearing them). And yes, the police say some people have cited Cummings as their excuse for breaking quarantine rules.

Now the problem here is that inevitably there will be a 2nd wave (particularly as the UK is still some way behind other European countries with thousands of new cases every day) and NHS staff have made clear they are exhausted and in absolutely no condition to deal with a 2nd wave if it hits any time soon.

As I mentioned in a prior post, the government will have a few weeks to put back in place lockdown measures to prevent this. And given how everyone’s been given an excuse to ignore the rules, if you can invent a valid excuse, well that ain’t going to happen. Particularly, as the government plans local rather than national lockdowns. But thanks to Cummings, anyone who can invent a reason to leave the infected area (child care, eye sight test, cat had kittens, etc.), can now do so, even if they’ve got symptoms.

So, given that Cummings might well prove to be responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands and the collapse of the UK healthcare system (oh and a disastrous no deal brexit in January, which will probably be followed by the collapse of the UK), why are they so keen on saving him?

Well that might have something to do with another wee story that the Tories managed to bury this week. A minster overruled a local council on a planning decision, regarding a large (£1 billion) property development, to the benefit of a Tory donor to the tune of £40 million (as the expedited decision allowed the developer to avoid the payment of newly introduced local taxes). The local council objected and sued. Their lawyers requested all the emails sent between the minster and developer as part of the evidence gathering process. This provoked the minster to immediately settle the case, even admitting that he broke the law.

Let us review that, a minster has admitted that he broke the law so that a Tory party supporter could make £40 million at the expense of a local council. And of course, he ain’t getting sacked either! And this is the sort of thing that’s becoming almost routine under Johnson. Contracts being handed out like Halloween candy to those friendly to the Tory party, even for things like medicinal supplies and services (I mean its not like we need to apply some scrutiny to those right now!). And this includes several contracts given to firms linked to Cummings, no questions asked.

Its not unlike the “Operation Carwash” scandal in Brazil. And the UK has the nerve to call other countries corrupt. The only difference being, the Tories aren’t even bothering to try and hide what they are doing. And why should they? They know half the country are mugs who will still vote for them next election, no matter how badly they screw up, nor how many people die from Covid. And they know the hard left will sabotage Starmers chances anyway (it would make the chosen one Corbyn look bad if he lost by a historic margins…several times! only for Starmer to waltz in and win on the first try).

The reality is that Cummings real role in government is less “special adviser” and more special messenger. Cummings has a pretty shady past, including a period in Russia and contacts with several Oligarchs, not to mention various dodgy hedge funds and offshore firms. So he effectively acts as a go-between for them, who whispers in the ear of the PM what policies various wealthy elites would want implemented.

Hence why he can’t be sacked. If he is, Johnson will be in danger of angering the one group of supporters he actually cares about. This is what brexiters voted for. Like I said at the time, when the Tories said “take control” they weren’t talking to plebs like you, but to the elites who bankrolled the Tory party. Did you actually think they gave a crap about ordinary people? LOL! For the post-brexit future they envision for the UK is that of being a dodgy, low-tax Kleptocracy, with no real public services. A Dickensian society, but with broadband and big brother.

The only question is, what happens when their lies are exposed? On the one hand, you could argue that the Cummings affair shows that even within the Tory party, nevermind the general public, you are going to get push back at some point and possibly an internal Tory revolt (meaning a new leader or an early election).

However, I’m doubtful. I cannot help but notice that much of this “tory anger” over Cummings is really just bluster to keep their constituents onside. MP’s after all, if they really want Cummings gone, could simply vote to remove the post of special adviser (thus making him redundant). But the lack of any effort to do that suggests they know they only have to to talk the talk, rather than walk the walk. The gold fish like attention span of Tory voters ensures they will quickly forget about it all within a few days. And besides, no doubt the Daily Mail will find a way to blame it all (and the impending collapse of the NHS) on foreigners.