I was away in Ireland over the last week, so thought it would be good to do a round up of the news while I’ve been away….
Theresa “the Maybot” May, has been described as the prisoner of number 10. She is basically a lame duck PM and its not even her first day of her new term yet. She’s had to sack advisers and bring in some of the more odorous elements of the Tory party in order to cling to power for a bit longer.
And already some minsters, such as Hammond (who it was expected would be given the boot after the election) are staking out their stall for party leadership and openly attacking her. And her actions and U-turns with regard to Grenfell fire, shows just how little power she now has.
The return of Gove did surprise many, but it makes sense. Basically she’s stuffing two big egos in the room, Boris and Gove and hoping they take each other out. Keep in mind that Boris dropped out last time because of some “dirt” that Gove apparently has on him. There’s also a significant anyone but Boris wing within the Tories. Keep in mind the whole point of making Boris foreign secretary was so that he’d screw it up and blow any chance of becoming PM. It also looks like David Davis is emerging as the preferred candidate by the Murdoch’s or anyone who dislikes Boris.
One possible strategy for the Tories is they ditch Theresa, elect someone who can perhaps smile and even interact with “people”, or who knows maybe even hold a baby. Then they have another election. However if that’s the plan, its a bad idea.
Firstly the country has voter fatigue. They’ll have to put Brenda from Bristol on the terrorist watch list if they called another one. I could see a lot of people just going into the polling booth and voting monster raving loony (or UKIP, similar policies basically) just out of frustration.
The Tories are about to be hit with a lot of bad news in the coming weeks. Firstly the whole brexit business is going to mean them making a lot of unpopular policy decisions as part of these negotiations. For example, indications are they’ve already quietly accepted the concept of paying an exit bill of some kind. There will be some leeway to negotiate how much, but its going to be in the tens of billions, perhaps as much as 60 billion….paid in euro’s of course! And then there’s the deficit they’ll run up paying for all of those other promises they’ve made, yet still seeing job losses as companies start moving workers overseas. Estimates from the treasury suggest this could cost up to £66 billion per year.
That’s not the sort of backdrop to an election you want to fight. The one trump card they have is that Corbyn has been going along with their brexit policy and thus will catch some flak himself. However, its a risky strategy. As I believe I speculated years ago, one could envisage a scenario where the Tories held a EU referendum, to their own horror actually won it. Then due to all the negative economic impacts lost a subsequent election to a hard left labour leader, who proceeds to run them and the non-dom’s out of town. That is not that an unlikely scenario now.
With friends like these……
Then there’s the thorny issue of the Tories new allies in hate, the DUP. Or basically the old testament with fortnightly bin collections. These are people who believe in young earth creationism, that we can pray the gay away and they have links to known terrorist organisations. This lot actually transcend the tea party in terms of craziness, I mean they actually think line dancing is a sin. They are basically living proof of Poe’s Law.
It is no wonder they have John Major worried. And when John Major starts criticising you, aka the guy who lose the 1997 election by the largest margin in recent UK history, you know you’ve strayed seriously off course. I mean if you think about it, John Major would now make a better and more competent PM than any of the likely present Tory candidates. When you’re in a hole, stop digging, especially when you hit the water table.
….who needs enemies
And speaking of terrorist supporting sectarians, there’s the issue of Sinn Fein. They have seven MP’s, just three less than the DUP, meaning that if they showed up in Parliament they could all but cancel out the DUP and get up to all sorts of mischief. However, Theresa May can sleep easy because that’s not going to happen. Why? Because they’d have to swear allegiance to the crown and Sinn Fein are refusing to do that.
Back in Ireland his Gerryness spent the last week trying to avoid this elephant in the room. They are willing to trade the post brexit status of NI, the possibility of a border poll, risk a hard border, sit on their hands while the DUP are allowed to screw them over, all to protect their precious ego. Keep in mind that back in the 1920’s a similar pledge of allegiance was applied during early days of Irish independence. When the Irish government announced a change in the law that would require MP’s (TD’s in Ireland) to take their seats or lose them, SF swallowed their pride, declared it “an empty formula” and simply crossed their fingers while making the pledge.
What Sinn Fein have shown by this, or their refusal to enter into government in Ireland, is that they are the eternal protest vote. If you’re angry you can urinate into the ballot box, or vote Sinn Fein. Its basically the same thing and will have about the same effect…although one of those might get you arrested!
Nursing applications down 96%
And speaking of brexit, we are already seeing the first impacts of brexit and the harsh immigration measures the Tories are aiming for. In academia, we are finding it ever harder to recruit good staff. Student numbers are already down. But spare a thought for nursing. Applications for nursing jobs in the UK from the EU have fallen by 96%.
That’s a shortage of about 1,300 nurses per year the UK will have to somehow fill. Keep in mind the typical nursing course will graduate about 100-250 nurses per year, after 3-4 years of training. So its not a problem that can be fixed quickly. And these graduate nurses might not have specialised in the areas where we have shortages (that’s sort of the whole point of recruiting from the EU). So this is inevitably going to mean an NHS that is already stretched will now be stretched yet further. I hope nobody’s planning on getting ill in the next few years.
Now I know what the brexiters will say, oh but we’ll give work visas to nurses with a generous quota. But this misses the point, right now they don’t have to apply for any visa and they still aren’t coming. What are you going to do, send “recruiters“ out to hang around university bars across Europe, get graduates doctors and nurses drunk, whack em over the head and they wake up in hospital in Greenwich, looking for a doctor, only to realise that they are the doctor.
Trump trip on hold
At least one bit of bad news the Tories will not have to deal with thought is Trump’s state visit. Aware that he might not be terribly popular in London (nah, ya think!) he’s reluctant to come. If he wants to have insults hurled at him all he needs to do is go back to NY for that. He has a fairly fragile ego after all.
For example, this week we had the story of how he fired the NY public persecutor because he didn’t answer a call from Trump. Apparently Trump had made requests and repeated calls that the prosecutor knew were illegal (it regarded a case against his son in law) and he decided he had better things to do that explain US law to a professional buffoon for the third time in one day. Needless to say this is a level of corruption we’d expect from an African dictator. On its own this one act is grounds for impeachment all by itself.
Also as a birthday boy treat he held his first full cabinet meeting (yes he’s only just held his first one!). Which involved them going around the room and letting everyone pledge loyalty and line up to kiss his ass. Of course the politically astute will realise that these same guys, like Caesar’s chums in the Senate, will still probably knife him when the time comes. In politics, its the guys who come to you with smiles and kisses you need to watch out for. Just ask Boris!
Merkel Trolls Trump
And speaking of Trump. Angela Merkel, the leader of the free world by default, spent the last week trolling Trump. On the anniversary of Reagan’s visit to Berlin and his famous, tear down this wall speech, she visited Mexico and gave a speech against Trump’s plan for a wall. It is just as well Trump and his supporters are unaware of the concept of irony, because if they were they’d have died at this point.
Furthermore, the trouble with Trump’s wall plan, aside from the enormous cost (of up to $70 billion), the time it would take to build, the ongoing costs of maintaining it….forever….is that a technology has already been invented that renders it obsolete – planes! There’s nothing to stop some Mexican migrant getting on a plane to LAX (which is going to be a lot cheaper than hiring some Coyote to guide him across) and then simply overstaying his visa.
As for harassing American companies about their factories in Mexico, much was made by Trump supporters of how Ford mothballed a car plant under construction in Mexico a couple of months back. However, they’ve failed to notice how this hasn’t amounted to any announcement to build the factory in the US instead. Ford simply abandoned the plan altogether and decided to downsize their planned capacity. All Trump’s done is force Ford’s shareholder to take a hit, deprive a few Mexicans of jobs (and what’s the bet some of them end up in the US) and not created a single US job.
Also we’re assuming that his wall will be guarded by jedi knights. I’ve no doubt the Mexican smuggling cartels will do a deal with a few corrupt border guards and we’ll find the flow of drugs and migrants continues. Border controls generally needs the support of both parties on both sides and Trump has more or less guaranteed he’s not going to get that.
Trump on Cuba
And in other Trump related news, Trump has announced a reversal of Obama’s reforms with regard to Cuba. Yes and who will benefit most from that, why Cuba’s long standing ally – Russia! Well there’s a coincidence!
Quite apart from the fact that these restrictions go against every economy principle the US stands for. Quite apart from hardship this brings down on ordinary Cubans. The fact is that if you want to ensure that communism survives in Cuba indefinitely, then embargoes like this are exactly the way to guarantee this.