As I mentioned before, its clear that labour is doing rather better than expected. However this isn’t so much because Corbyn is some sort of political genius, more because “chicken” May is screwing the campaign up. As the spectator (a Tory rag!) puts it “Theresa May has the warmth, wit and oratorical ability of a fridge-freezer”.
About the only thing she got right was the decision to the polls. Because if the Tories are struggling now, what chance do you think they stand after all the bad news from brexit hits and labour have a vaguely competent leader?
There have been more than a few face palm moments from Corbyn, for example childcare. For anyone who doesn’t know, this is a major issue, one that could easily win labour lots of votes if they could come up with a coherent policy.
UK families spend on average £6,000 on child care per year, about £500 a month, more than some people spend on rent or mortgage payments. And that doesn’t buy you 40 hours a week of child care. No it gets you only 25-30 hours a week. Meaning a working couple will need to set up rota where one starts work late and the other finishes early and they take it in turns to take off Friday afternoon’s. Of course if you are a single parent, this means you simply can’t have a full time job. And if you can’t afford to spend 6k a year then that means one parent can’t work at all (or a single parent is forced onto benefits). So many in the UK are forced to choose between a child and a career as a result.
So if labour could propose something sensible here it would be a major vote winner…..but of course Corbyn being Corbyn he flunked it. I mean how can the Tories be losing to this guy? And Diane Abbot similarly fluffed her lines on policing earlier in the campaign. Then there was the issue of the debates. I don’t think Corbyn did terribly well in any of them, but at least he actually showed up, unlike chicken little May, the Turkey of Maidenhead.
Magic money trees
The Tories main go-to excuse now seems to be to try and paint labour as the party of tax and spent. However this betrays the reality that the Tories have run up a larger deficit in just the first 5 years than labour ran up over 13 years of Blair and Brown, despite all of the austerity measures taken (or perhaps because of those measures and the freeze it put on the economy).
And brexit threatens to make the situation worse. Restrictions on trade with the EU, migrants (who pay taxes) leaving and labour shortages depressing growth will all lead to a drop in tax receipts. At the same time, rising inflation will push up the government’s costs. And of course they’ll need to pay various one off fees and costs to the EU or to set up agencies that basically replicate what the EU does, as well as the various unfunded promises they’ve made to various special interests, which all told will costs some figure in access of a hundred billion. Which kind of does put some of the promises labour have made in prospective. In short, the Tories also need a magic money tree, indeed they need a whole forest of them.
The Tories also talk about building loads of council homes, ignoring the fact that it was they who destroyed the UK’s system of council property in the first place. And if all the migrant builders leave, who exactly is going to build all these new homes? Do they have a 100,000 or so experienced builders? Oh no wait, they cut back on funding to programmes like that leading to major labour shortages.
It is perhaps inevitable that the Tories will have to cut public spending and do so on a large scale (I mean its not as if they are going to raise taxes!). And pensions are the one thing that has escaped the Tory axe so far. They’ve more or less admitted that the winter heating allowance will be means tested in future. However I suspect this is just the thin edge of the wedge.
It is, to be fair, a little silly to be dishing out benefits to pensioners without means testing, yet forcing the disabled or poor to undergo Daniel Blake style humiliation and hot coals to get the benefits they need. It is one or the other, either you don’t means test any benefits (hence why I favour a system of citizen’s income) or you means test everybody, pensioners included.
The fact is that the UK pension system is simply unaffordable post-brexit, cuts are now inevitable. When the current retirees were paying their taxes most of the benefits they now enjoy didn’t exist and life expectancy’s were such that it was assumed most of them would be dead by now. So the fact is they’ve not paid in sufficient taxes to fund their retirement. Those of us working can’t afford to make up the difference. The new labour plan to bring in lots of migrants to fund pensions was rejected, often by the very older generation who voted for brexit. Private pensions are similarly underfunded and likely to see a shortfall. So it seems clear to me that these cuts will probably be just the start of a rolling back of pension benefits, much as a warned would happen in the event of brexit.
One potentially popular labour policy is the re-nationalisation of public services privatised by the Tories. Now this is something I would support. I would argue that the inherent problem with the UK’s privatised public services is that the system of privatisation set up by Thatcher (an ideology the Tories themselves have now essentially abandoned) was flawed from the start. They allowed the spiv’s and speculators in the city to write the rules of privatisation, who inevitably came up with something that only benefits them and not those who use the public services. Hence why the costs of services such as the railways, electricity and water charges have all soared, as has the cost to the UK taxpayer to subsidise these industries, which is now higher than it was when said services were publicly owned.
But the devil is in the detail. I would sell re-nationalisation as a temporary measure to correct the inherent flaws in the Thatcher era system of privatisation. Indeed, the irony is that many of the UK’s rail firms are owned by foreign state owned rail companies (we’ve essentially outsourced running the railways to other countries because its against the Tory’s religion to nationalise them ourselves). I would primarily focus on forcing the privatised public services to follow through on what their franchise contracts require them to do and then try forcing them to give up those contracts (or allow a partial government buy out) if they are unable to comply (my guess is most of the failing ones will just give up and walk away rather than risk losing more money). And I won’t worry too much about privatised services that are actually well run, focusing on those that need to be fixed (e.g. southern rail). Keep in mind that labour will almost certainly be dependant on other parties, so any plan without cross party support is doomed to failure.
However, Corbyn’s plans here are largely uncosted and clearly ideologically driven. Hence they would likely be rejected by the other parties and he’d have to fight lots of messy court cases to force the franchise owners out and then pay them compensation. In short, its probably not going to work, even under ideal circumstances. And this is unfortunately a common thread throughout the labour manifesto.
Now like I said, there Tories have lots of things that are uncosted too and they aren’t being straight about the cuts they are going to have to implement. But labour that doesn’t give labour the excuse to just make stuff up.
Goodbye Mr Fox
And one issue that isn’t being raised is Fox hunting. While the bulk of the country is opposed to fox hunting and feels the matter was settled, the Tories, being a party of toff’s have never forgotten about the issue and its likely they’ll be trying to re-introduce it all over again. This is the danger with a Tory win, they will be resurrecting lots of long dead political issues and trying to score idealogical points while the country falls apart all around them.
And Trump will be coming over in July (well unless Corbyn wins and tells him to get lost). Theresa May is clearly in his pocket. While leaders around the world lined up to condemn Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris accords, May was silent. When he say fit to attack the London major in the middle of a terrorist attack, again barely a peep from Downing street.
So a vote for the Tories is a vote for the UK becoming the 51st state of Trump. The UK will be surrendering its sovereignty to the US, as well as accepting US trade standards, including milk and beef loaded with steroids and chlorinated chicken.
Terror attacks and policing
And speaking of terror, its ironic how the Tories try to portray themselves as the party of security and stability. The fact is that policing in the UK is chronically underfunded and they are squarely to blame for this, as there are 20,000 less police officers now than there were when they took over. Policing is now so bad in the UK than certain crimes (such as burglary and petty theft) have undergone defacto legalisation, simply because there’s not enough cops to enforce them. And recall that May’s previous job as home secretary means these cuts happened on her watch.
Its all well and good the Tories mumbling about how they are going to respond to the recent attacks by arresting certain people or tighten this law or that, but one has to ask A) who is actually going to arrest these people and with the prison service over stretched where were you planning to detain them? B) if there’s actual evidence of wrong doing on their part why in blue blazes weren’t they arrested months ago? And C) if there’s no actual evidence, they your talking about internment, which they tried on the IRA back in the 70’s and that didn’t exactly work out did it?
I think its also important to acknowledge the factors driving terrorism. Namely the UK is helping prop up various corrupt and despotic regimes in the middle east, who use anti-western jihadi rhetoric as a conduit to deflect anger away from them. The UK (and the US) are also in the process of stealing middle east oil as well as supporting Israel’s occupation of the West bank. So here’s a crazy thought, but how about we don’t sell these regimes weapons any more, we move away from oil toward renewables, we kick the oil sheik’s out of London, freeze their accounts force them to go home and fix their country’s problems.
Certainly though more police and reversing the Tory cuts would help, for many reasons unrelated to the recent terror attacks. But I fear many will vote Tory now as the party that will keep them safee, when instead your voting for a party who’ve kicked a hornet’s nest and plan to keep kicking it, because hornets are well known to calm down if you keep annoying them.
An ideological election
All in all this is the sort of election where you can’t really rely on the manifestos. I seriously doubt whoever wins will stick to what’s in the manifestos. Indeed, its the things not in the manifesto’s, the unpopular decisions they’ll have to make that should really be deciding this election.
This is very much an election about ideologies. Indeed this is probably the reason the Tories have taken a dip in the polls. They don’t really have an ideology anymore, they’re basically UKIP-lite.
Unfortunately there’s just enough dump and racist people in the country, or those turned off by labours move to the hard left, that the Tories will probably win anyway for all of the wrong reasons.