The Trump who came to tea

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It is becoming increasingly obvious that Theresa May’s decision to invite Trump over to the UK was premature and ill advised, to put it as diplomatically as one can (a cluster-fuck screw-up from a stand-in PM would be a less diplomatic way of describing it).

Trump’s disastrous performance at press conferences, his erratic behaviour, conflicts of interest and of course the resignation of his national security adviser in record time, have all contributed to a view that his will be a chaotic and probably shortlived presidency. Already his job approval numbers have plunged in just a few days, to a point it took Nixon 8 years and a Watergate scandal to reach. In my view it is only a matter of time before there is some move to unseat him.

Keep in mind that only a minority of Republicans need to join forces with the democrats to unseat him. The prevailing wisdom was that this was unlikely to happen any time soon, as the GOP need him more than he needs them. That if there was a move against him, it would likely happen either just before, or after the mid term elections (depending on whether the GOP feel they would be better served by removing him from office prior to or after the mid terms). Aside from the impeachment option, Trump’s erratic behaviour does raise the possibility of removal via the 25th amendment. While this would require the support of the cabinet, recall that most of his cabinet it are the sort of odious cronies who can be easily bought. Trump I suspect may have forgotten that someone might make them a better offer.

So the danger for the brexiters is, they invite Trump over, put the country through the political mess of mass protests, embarrassing the queen and parliament, etc., only for him to then be removed from office shortly afterwords. Aside from the political damage this would do, it could have serious consequences if for example there’s a Scottish independence referendum campaign ongoing. Voting for independence just to piss off Trump, might just swing the referendum the way of the SNP.

And needless to say it could put the UK in an awkward position in terms of negotiating with Trump’s successor, doubly so if the democrats win in 2020. Recall that it would be illegal for the UK to even start negotiations with the US until they are out of the EU in 2019, so baring a ridiculously fast turn around on a trade deal its likely to fall to the winner of the 2020 election to complete these negotiations. And the chances of that being Trump aren’t particularly high.

So Theresa May may well have just made it harder for her to get a favourable trade deal, than better. So why did she do it? this could be a potential resigning issue. Well the answer tells us a lot about the post-brexit UK. Notably that the country is desperately short of friends and as a result we’re going to have to let Trump and his grubby (small) rapist hands near the Queen. Obviously given the weakness of the UK’s position, its unlikely we’ll be getting a favourable trade deal with anybody, not the EU, not China, nor the US.

Getting a trade deal is certainly possible, in much the same way that if you go down to a used car lot, and you are suitably desperate you’ll come away with a car (you’ll pay a lot more than you’d like to and it might break down on the way home, but you’ll get a car). The problem is that the devil is in the detail and its likely the UK will have to concede a lot.

So in essence the situation with this Trump visit more or less confirms that the UK will be a lot worse off after brexit than it was before.

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