The Tories have been accused of pulling the pin on the Grammar school hand grenade, not because they think its a good idea, but because they want to distract from the shambles of the Brexit fallout. We’ve already learnt that a points system isn’t going to happen. Then it was a restriction on entry unless migrants had a job. They’ve gone quiet on that one too now, so presumably that’s been ditched also, for what should be obvious reasons. Now they seem to be planning on requiring entrants to have a work visa.
What’s wrong with that? Well because it constitutes what Sarah Palin would describe as “central planning”. Its distinctly anti-business and authoritarian. Decisions on recruitment will be taken away from employers and they’ll be left at the whims of government policy. This is the sort of thing that will result in crops rotting in the field, projects put on hold because of a lack of skilled labour or businesses shutting down as they can’t get the staff they need. Inevitably employers will relocate outside of the UK to the rest of the EU where they can recruit more freely. Indeed its interesting to note that the post-Brexit shares rally now appears to be over, the FTSE 100 & 250 have been falling for the last few days, possibly because the penny is finally dropping that it might not be business as usual.
Keep in mind that British citizens count towards inward migration figures. And perhaps not surprisingly UK nationals make up the vast majority of those entering the country. Last time I checked the figures of those entering the UK to permanently take up residence 83,000 of them (25% of the total if we include students, 55% if we exclude students) were British. As the EU states will reciprocate with any restrictions, its likely that what you’ll see is a slight drop in EEA citizens coming, cancelled out by a sudden jump in UK citizens coming home permanently. Only difference is instead of getting nice young Polish people with skills the country needs, we’ll be getting older people (in many cases retired) who’ll be taking more money out of the state than they contribute.
The only way net migration could be cut to “the tens of thousands” is by bringing in North Korea like border controls and essentially banning British people from moving abroad (or moving back to the UK).
Its likely that the only way this visa idea would work is by doing something along the lines of the Swiss, with no specific restrictions on numbers allowed in, just so long as they fill in the necessary paperwork. In other words it will be an empty formula, consisting of a bit of form filling and paying a fee. It will change nothing, aside from making the job of EU citizens coming in, or British going out, that little bit more bureaucratic.
And speaking of the Swiss, a situation in Switzerland whereby the people voted for immigration restrictions mirrors the situation in the UK. The Swiss tried to stonewall the Europeans, the EU refused to budge, guess whose blinked first? Yep, the Swiss seem to be on the verge of caving in. They’re looking for some window dressing so that they can claim to be compiling with the wording of the referendum decision while perverting its original intend, much as Theresa May will be doing in about two years time.
And if the stakes weren’t high enough, there’s the matter of the Etias. This was an anti-terrorism measure proposed back in 2011, similar to the visa entry system to the US. Whereby non-Schengen citizens (i.e. anyone outside the EU, Norway and Switzerland) will have to pay a fee and fill in an online form 72 hours before entering the EU. Now originally the UK was supposed to get a pass on this, or some sort of opt in. However, given the recent talk of immigration restrictions, its increasingly unlikely the UK will get any leeway from the EU (short of the UK joining the single market without condition).
Now for a tourist having to apply 72 hours in advance of travel to the EU is just plain inconvenient. But to some British, airline staff, truck drivers, salesmen, its potentially crippling. We could see waves of these people loosing their jobs, replaced by EU citizens or their company relocating across the channel. Its increasingly likely I would therefore argue that the UK will be sent packing with their tail between their legs once these Brexit negotiations start. The EU won’t get nasty, they don’t need too. All they’ll do is read the UK the riot act and force them to confront the cold hard facts of life.
Indeed the very fact Theresa May has resorted to chucking around dead moggies and bringing up Grammar schools, does tend to suggest they know they’re not going to get their way. And the frustrations seem to be building. Liam Fox, who was recently sent packing by the Australians (he’d been talking up the possibility of a trade deal with them), went so far as to insult UK small business owners for not being suitably patriotic. Ya, like the Russian cosmonauts who weren’t suitably patriotic enough to hold their breath for ten minutes after their soviet leaders sent them up in a shoddy capsule. Business leaders have naturally pointed out they are doing the best they can but some dickheads decided to have a referendum on EU membership and that’s kind of screwed them over.
In short, the Tories lies on Brexit are starting to catch up with them.