I’ve been watching the EIA’s Drill productivity reports for a couple of months now and they do hint at a slowdown in US shale oil and shale gas production.
Certainly it has to be said that over the last year the overall figures show production is up for gas, although down slightly for oil. However as figure 1 shows this represents drops in older legacy fields being replaced by new production in less mature fields. But in some cases the rate of replacement lags behind the rate of decline, hence why production from some fields is now down and oil is now down overall.
Figure 1: Overall production changes for various shale oil & gas fields [Source: EIA, August 2016]
One of the issues with shale oil and shale gas fields is that production rates tend to tail off much more rapidly than with a conventional oil or gas field…
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