EU Referendum update – Argumentum ex culo

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The Tory civil war referendum debate continues, with the Leave camp resurrecting old arguments and making outlandish promises. The Remain camp have accused them of promising a “make-believe land of milk and honey”.

e.g. they want a points system for migrants. As I pointed out before, while yes Australia and Canada apply a points system for UK migrants, they don’t apply those rules to visitors from their neighbours in the US or New Zealand, because that would just be silly and likely lead to their neighbours responding in kind. Already the Dutch government have pointed out that they would respond with like for like rules on British citizens.

Meaning British ex-pats in Europe would suddenly have to get a work visa. And its worth noting that if they start streaming back into the country, that’s going to push up net migration figures. Already 83,000 Brits return over those who immigrate, so a doubling of that figure would likely wipe out any reduction (and there’s no reason to suggest it will fall, if the economic trends driving it still apply). In short, unless you turn the country into North Korea, there is no way to cut net inward migration.

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British citizens represent the largest source of inward migration (demographic changes not included). The number of EU migrants entering is now falling

In other news they promised to cut fuel duty and VAT on energy bill. Yes, and what about this thing called “climate change” ? (you might want to google that sometime). Also, cutting taxes means that they’d have to cut back on public spending….or raise income tax. And he likely economic impact is that overall taxes would go up.

Realising that young people might swing this election, they’ve been promising that leaving the EU would make it easier to get a flat. Well no because A) like I said earlier, leaving would not reduce inward migration. B) the main population driver is still demographic changes (i.e. people living longer) and C) the main purchasers of flats are investors and buy to let landlords. Indeed, when I bought my flat last year I was told (by the seller) that I had been bidding against another first time buyer and several buy-to-let landlords, no mention of any migrants.

All told, the leave camp have promised some £110 billion of unfunded extra spending with no clue as to where the money is going to come from…presumably yet another example Argumentum ex culo. The BBC’s “reality check is already overloaded with the level of BS being churned out, mostly by the vote Boris vote leave camp.

Unfortunately, there are enough stupid people in the country who actually might believe this BS, and opinion polls point to either a tight stay vote or a narrow leave. In both cases, likely the worst case scenario.

Let’s put in this way, there was an article in the Beeb the other day about in store music and which tunes they play and why. I think all shops should be made to play Beethoven – 7th Symphony – 2nd movement for the rest of the month, maybe it will get the message across!

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4 thoughts on “EU Referendum update – Argumentum ex culo

  1. Ho ho ho. My take is that in the end it will come down to gut feeling – are we going to be the bolshily independent island nation who saw off Hitler and don’t like being beholden to or influenced by anybody outside? Or are we going to settle for ‘better the devil you know’? Time will tell!

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